New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
The dominant Saints team, which scored more than 34 points per game this season, is heading to Candlestick Park to play a 49ers team that averaged only 24 points per game this season. It seems like a no-brainer that the Saints would be favored, right?According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino posted the Saints as 3.5-point favorites, briefly pushing the line to 4 points on Thursday before bringing it back to 3.5 points. The point total stands at 47 points, which means oddsmakers are predicting a Saints win with a score of roughly 26-22. Most other Vegas sportsbooks have the line at Saints -4, with different amounts of juice on the sides. R.J. Bell of Pregame.com notes, as Paul Bessire did on the first page of this column, that this is only the second road favorite in the Divisional round of the playoffs since the format was introduced in 1982. The other came in 1996 when the Dallas Cowboys were road favorites at the Carolina Panthers.While most square bettors will key in on the fact that the Saints averaged the second-largest number of points per game this season, they will likely overlook just how good the 49ers defense was this season. On average, San Francisco allowed only 14.3 points per game, the second fewest total this year. While the offense didn't score points at will, the 49ers ended the year with the fourth best point differential in the NFL. That has made the team a sexy choice for smart bettors."I like SF as the dog here. It makes a lot of sense to me," Pregame's Leonard says. "The reason they have the hook on this line is because they'd have too much public money on New Orleans. I haven't bet it yet and I'm hoping for a line of San Francisco +4 once the public gets involved. The Saints on the road are not the same team. SF is a better offensive team at home than they are the on the road."Like Leonard, Prediction Machine's Bessire keys in on the idea that the Saints are not as good on the road playing outside the friendly confines of a dome. The Saints played 11 games this year indoors shielded from the elements (including eight home games in Louisiana). In two of the five regular season games the Saints played outdoors, they lost by an average of 7 points. And it's not simply about playing outdoors: New Orleans' three losses this season all came on the road this season."The matchup and conditions are shaping up very well for this to be an extremely close game, not one that should see the road team favored by more than a field goal," Bessire says. "The Saints struggles when having to play outside on the road are genuine. They are built for the turf inside. San Francisco is built for the mud. While it should not be rainy/muddy, too cold or windy, the conditions are still better for the 49ers."The Pick: 49ers +3.5. I love the hook on this game. The Saints averaged about 27 points per game on the road this season while allowing 24.5 points in each of those eight games. That came against weak teams like the Rams, Buccaneers, Vikings and Titans. By comparison, the 49ers rank third by Football Outsiders' DVOA efficiency statistic. That said, there are plenty of questions regarding the 49ers offense. Can Alex Smith successfully throw the ball? Will they score points in the red zone, something San Francisco has struggled with all season? Bettors have to remember that the Saints may rank second in overall offense by DVOA, but the New Orleans defense is a pitiful 28th ranked unit, among the worst in the NFL. This game should be extremely close, and I expect it to be decided either way by a field goal or less.Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Timmy vs. Tommy. Underdog vs. Experience. Heaven vs. Hell, if we're willing to extend metaphors. It's too bad that Vegas is calling for a blowout after all the Tebow hype this week.According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino posted this game with the Patriots favored by 13.5 points, which is exactly where the line has stayed all week. Other sportsbook in Vegas have also held to the 13.5-point spread, although a few have gone as high as 14 points, even after Denver's dramatic upset win over the Steelers. The total stands at 50 points, which means oddsmakers are calling for a Patriots victory by a score of 32-18. R.J. Bell of Pregame.com notes that this is the biggest NFL playoff line since the Patriots were 14.5-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers in 2007. He notes that the first meeting between the Patriots and Broncos earlier this season resulted in the biggest bet game of the regular season, with over $1 billion of worldwide action, about five times the regular season average.It would appear oddsmakers haven't been able to shake off the memory of the Week 15 game where the Patriots overcame an early deficit to throttle the Broncos 41-23, ending Tebow's streak of early success. While bettors will remember how handily the Patriots won that game against the Broncos, Prediction Machine's Bessire says it would be wise to ignore the score of the first game and figure out how Denver lost.Bessire notes that the Broncos ran for 252 yards on 31 carries (a ridiculous 8.1 yards-per-carry) and Tim Tebow completed 50% of his passes for 194 yards and 8.8 yards-per-pass against the Patriots in that first game. So how did the Broncos end up losing? It was all about fumbles -- Denver coughed up the ball three times -- although Bessire notes that fumbles are more bad luck than a major deficiency for a team."It's likely that Denver breaks even if not wins the turnover battle this time around against New England," Bessire says. "If that happens, there is not nearly as much that separates these teams as the almost two touchdown spread suggests. Denver has a genuine opportunity to put points on the board and keep this game to around single digits."Pregame's Leonard agrees that Denver might be the right side in this game. "In that first game, I didn't see much that convinces me that New England should be favored by that much," Leonard says of the 13.5-point line. "New England has defended against the run very well. But we saw last week Denver is willing to take chances to stretch the field, which will soften the New England defense."The Pick: Broncos +13.5. It's been tough to pick against my beloved Patriots this season. But when a line grows this big, bettors have to face the reality that the Patriots defense is utterly atrocious. It is true that the Pats defense made some great adjustments in the first game against Denver earlier this year, but their success was more to do with the bad luck of fumbles.Maybe this is a bit of a reverse jinx on my part. Who knows? But honestly, as a Patriots fan, the previous playoff losses to Baltimore and the Jets make it so that I can't take anything for granted. That said, the Broncos had to play as well as they possibly could in order to beat the Steelers last week. They probably won't get that lucky again, but they should keep this one closer than two touchdowns.Houston Texans at Baltimore Raven (-7.5)
When these two teams played in Week 6, the game was much closer than the end score of 29-14 would have you believe. Since then, though, the injuries for the Texans have been piling up while the Ravens beat up teams at home. So why isn't this line bigger?According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino posted the Ravens as 7.5-point favorites, exactly where the line sits now. Only a few sportsbooks have moved off of that 7.5 number, with the Wynn pushing the spread to Baltimore -8. The total of 36 points means oddsmakers expect the Ravens to beat the Texans by a score of roughly 21-14.In that first game earlier this season, the Texans actually had a lead over the Ravens late in the third quarter. But after three field goals and a touchdown, the Ravens ended up running away with the game in the fourth quarter. Bettors are now being asked to take the Texans on the road with T.J. Yates at quarterback (as opposed to injured starter Matt Schaub, who played in the first game between these two) and they're getting more than a touchdown."The only thing that Baltimore does significantly better than Houston is defend the run, which was on full display in the first matchup of these teams and makes a difference with the high frequency at which Houston runs," Prediction Machine's Bessire says. "But the advantage is not enough to justify a spread greater than a TD, especially when Houston put up 188 yards on 35 carries (5.4 yards-per-carry) against what was at that time the third-best run defense in the league in Cincinnati."Pregame's Leonard says that he's probably going to pass on this game, although he has a slight lean on Houston. "The only problem is that Baltimore is a good team at home, playing with more experience in the playoffs," he says. "Houston won that game last week and, in my mind, these are young guys who may be content with having won already. But any time you get more than a touchdown with a team that has the better defense, it's appealing."The Pick: Texans +7.5. I don't love this pick, but I also don't love the idea of taking a Baltimore team that has failed to make a very deep run in the playoffs in previous years while laying more than a touchdown. This game will see both teams giving their running backs lots of carries, which will slow the game down, eat up a lot of clock, and will keep the score close. The Texans have an outside chance of winning this game outright thanks to a very good defense, which makes me nervous to lay more than a touchdown on the Ravens.New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Besides the Ravens, the Giants have confounded me the most the season. The Giants somehow lose at home to the Seahawks and Redskins, but can travel to New England and Dallas and emerge victorious. So which Giants team shows up this weekend?It seems Vegas isn't expecting the better Giants team to come out on the field this Sunday. According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino posted the defending champion Packers favored by as many as 8.5 points. Since then, the line has slowly ticked lower to 7.5 points, although at the Wynn bettors can get Packers -8 at even money. Vegas is calling for a shootout with a total of 53 points, which translates to a Packers victory by a score of 30-22.This, of course, is the third of three rematches this weekend of games we saw earlier in the season. Unlike the others, though, the spread is moving further away from how the first game ended up. The Giants played the Packers tough in their first game, losing by 3 points after a last-minute field goal won the game for the Packers. While the venue shifts from New Jersey to Lambeau Field, is the swap of home-field advantage worth laying more than a touchdown on the Packers?Pregame's Leonard is leaning on the Giants if the line stays at 7.5 points or above, although he is concerned that bettors aren't getting a bargain based on the last meeting between these two teams."Green Bay was a 7-point favorite on the road earlier this year, and now they're about a 7-point favorite at home," Leonard explains. "There's no extra value. I don't know if it's enough to get me to play the Giants. I have a slight lean that way. There has been a lot of talk that people like the Giants. You have a 15-1 team playing at home with a week off, so it's hard not to look at the Packers if they're only laying 7.""While putting up numbers that make them seem pretty dominant, it is still difficult to trust this team to win by more than a touchdown against a very good team," Prediction Machine's Bessire says of the Packers. "Aaron Rodgers put together the greatest all-around performance we have ever seen at the quarterback position. That should be enough to win the Packers this game, but the advantage is not enough to win by more than a touchdown against an opponent that has an emerging defense and a strong passing attack of its own."The Pick: Giants +7.5. I don't trust Eli Manning on the road in Green Bay. But then again, I didn't trust Eli Manning on the road in Green Bay in 2008 when the Giants beat the Packers in overtime to head to the Super Bowl. The Giants, though, have put it together on defense the past few games, allowing an average of 10 points per game over the final two regular season games and the first playoff round game against the Falcons.Don't get me wrong: Green Bay has a very potent offense that will score on the Giants defense. But I have major concerns about the Packers defense, almost in the same way I worry about the Patriots defense. The Packers allowed the Giants to score 35 points in the first game between these two teams earlier this season. I don't see the low-ranked Packer defense slowing the Giants down this weekend, so this game should be much closer than a touchdown..>To follow Robert Holmes on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/RobTheStreet.>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints
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