Playing The Emerging Market Middle Class

Whatever happens this week, or this month, I believe the long bull run in emerging markets will continue. Still, I don't want to own any broad emerging market ETFs -- after all, just because a company is located in a foreign land hardly guarantees it is will be successful. Rather, I want to look at what key trends will lead to investment opportunities.

I believe emerging countries great need for infrastructure is one key investment theme, which I discussed in an article here. Today I want to give some recommendations for companies I see in another great opportunity: the rise of the emerging market middle class.

Before we all run out and grab some shares of the ECON ETF, I think we can do better by picking a few strong stocks rather than a wide basket. I am looking for cash-rich companies with strong earnings that deliver a high and growing dividend.

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. De C.V. (KOF)

If you are not sure how to pronounce the name of this company, you can simply call it Latin-Coke, as they produce, distribute and sell soft drinks across nine Latin American countries. While the 2.2% yield may not seem especially generous, the huge price run-up of this stock has masked truly massive dividend growth. KOF has grown their dividend by over 30% annualized over the last five years -- including a staggering 127% increase in 2011.

EPS growth has softened a bit this year but is still projected to grow at a very respectable 14% annualized over the next five years. Management has made clear their intentions to aggressively grow their dividend and with a conservative payout ratio of only 38%, KOF has plenty of room to keep doing just that.

KOF Key Metrics
Dividend Yield	2.2%
1 year Dividend Growth Rate	127%
5 year Dividend Growth Rate	31%
Dividend Payout Ratio	38%
Return on Equity	15.1%
5 year Total Return	20.4%
Analyst Recommendation	BUY

Ambev - Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (ABV)

The fizzy drinks are nice but you know that as the emerging market consumer's income rises they are going to turn to adult beverages. This is where Ambev comes into play: they have a dominant 70% market share in Brazil's rapidly growing beer market. Their strong EPS growth has translated into a sizzling 58% annualized five year dividend growth rate.

ABV Key Metrics
Dividend Yield	4.3%
1 year Dividend Growth Rate	N/A
5 year Dividend Growth Rate	27%
Dividend Payout Ratio	30.6%
Return on Equity	33.5%
5 year Total Return	32.1%
Analyst Recommendation	STRONG BUY

Brasil Foods S.A. (BRFS)

Brasil Foods SA is a Brazil-based food company focused on the production and sale of poultry, pork, beef cuts, milk, dairy products and processed food products. The investment this here is pretty simple: the rising middle class in Latin America is going to want a more luxurious diet and will buy up Brasil Food's selection of pre-cut meat products and specialty dairy products. And if you believe in coming food inflation, Brasil Foods gives you the ability to play two key trends.

As a dividend investor, I do have to point out that Brasil Foods is fairly cavalier about their dividend. They cut their dividend in 2006 after a bad quarter, then eliminated their dividend entirely during the great recession before reinstating it in 2010. They have since been increasing their dividend by leaps and bound.

BRFS Key Metrics
Dividend Yield	1.7%
1 year Dividend Growth Rate	N/A
5 year Dividend Growth Rate	N/A
Dividend Payout Ratio	22%
Return on Equity	13.3%
5 year Total Return	30.4%
Analyst Recommendation	BUY

China Mobile (CHL)

Not all of the emerging market consumer's new found riches are going to go into food and drink of course -- let's not forget about fun toys. China Mobile offers mobile communications services and reaches all major Chinese cities and counties and most major roads and highways.As the developing countries become more "Western", can you imagine a country of 1.3 billion people and all with cellphones?

China Mobile's share price has been stuck in a narrow price range for the last three years. This might actually be a positive in today's manic-depressive markets but share price-aside, CHL keeps raising their dividend every year.

CHL Key Metrics
Dividend Yield	4.1%
1 year Dividend Growth Rate	9%
5 year Dividend Growth Rate	12%
Dividend Payout Ratio	37%
Return on Equity	20.8%
5 year Total Return	6.1%
Analyst Recommendation	BUY

AFP Provida (PVD)

Higher incomes not only lead to higher spending but higher savings. This is where AFP Provida comes in, Chile's largest pension provider. Chile has a privatized social security system where, by law, every Chilean must send in 20% of their income to a pension provider.

I still think the casino -- where people simply walk into your business and drop all their money into a hole -- is the best business model but AFP Provida may be a close second. Regardless of what the market is doing, those weekly contributions just keep pouring in. This generates a tremendous amount of free cash flow for this company and PVD has used it to fund a generous and growing dividend. The dividend is admittedly erratic but also huge: the 52-week trailing yield is 15.4%

PVD Key Metrics
Dividend Yield	15.4%
1 year Dividend Growth Rate	33%
5 year Dividend Growth Rate	48%
Dividend Payout Ratio	42%
Return on Equity	25.8%
5 year Total Return	24.2%
Analyst Recommendation	N/A

Disclosure: I am long PVD, ABV, KOF.