Friday, October 26, 2012

This pullback can be bought

Everyone claims they want to buy on weakness until it hits, and then concerns elevate and those with cash on hand tend to keep it in their pocket. Once the coast appears to be clear, then confidence increases again and cash gets put to work at higher levels.

Currently, there's an opportunity to gain some exposure at a discount relative to recent prices, and it's one the bulls could get paid nicely to seize.

Since the April highs, we've seen bounces get sold and the market has struggled to hold on to even short-term gains. We created a lower high on May 1, and we currently have another lower high from June 19, highlighting the fact that the market hasn't officially rolled out of correction mode ... yet.

However, there's an edge the bulls have at the moment which makes the current dip potentially buyable. It's not about seasonality or an election year or based on hopes of things clearing up in Europe (yeah, right). Rather, it's simply based on the strength of the last bounce we saw coming off the June low.

For the S&P 500 Index SPX , that June low was set at 1266. We then saw a lift into the June high of nearly 100 points (96.72 to be precise). While that rally was indeed impressive at 7.6% in just over two weeks' time, the important element of it was that it created space for a pullback. Since then, we've seen the S&P retreat roughly halfway back down (to Monday's low), including a pair of hefty declines in the previous three sessions.

Interestingly, volume failed to spike with the retreat in price, indicating a lack of broad participation on the sell side. That's potentially bullish. Additionally, to think that we've still got ample room to pull back deeper before the June low would be threatened opens up the idea of this pullback eventually resulting in a higher low.

These technical elements make this dip buyable with a defined get-out zone beneath the June low. Should we happen to retreat further and mark a new correction low from the spring highs, the trade is off. Otherwise, it's a defined-risk scenario here for those willing to put cash to work after the recent weakness. Last Thursday was ugly. Monday was ugly. There have been some nasty selloffs lately, and we may not be done yet. But the bulls still have something going for them: the potential for a higher low to be established once the current dip runs its course. There are no guarantees, but the setup here is shaping up to be favorable for the bulls for the first time in many weeks.

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