2 Infrastructure Firms With Low Valuations

Revenue growth is starting to return in a big way at some companies involved in building infrastructure and numerous companies in the sector sell for a fraction of what they did in 2007. Here are two companies with accelerating revenue growth and low valuations that are significantly under analysts’ price targets.

Tutor Perini (TPC) –

Tutor Perini Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides diversified general contracting, construction management, and design-build services to private clients and public agencies worldwide. It operates in three segments: Civil, Building, and Management Services.

(Business description from Yahoo Finance)

4 reasons TPC is a long term bargain at just over $15 a share:

1. The median analyst price target on Tutor Perini is $24. It is selling at a forward P/E of just over 6.

2. The stock had a $70 price back in 2007 when it $3.54 a share (See Chart)

click to enlarge

3. The company is selling at the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/E, P/S, P/B and P/CF.

4. Revenue growth is accelerating. TPC is expecting 18% growth in sales in 2011 and consensus is for 21% growth in revenues in 2012.

Terex Corporation (TEX) –

Terex Corporation manufactures and markets machinery products, equipment, and related replacement parts and components for construction, quarrying, mining, shipping, transportation, refining, energy, and utility industries.

(Business description from Yahoo Finance)

4 reasons Terex has long term potential at just under $17 a share:

1. The mean analyst price target on Terex is $22 and S&P has a $24 price target on TEX. It is selling at a forward P/E of just over 10.

2. The stock had a $90 price back in 2007 when it $5.85 a share (See Chart)

3. The company is selling near the bottom of its five year valuation range based on P/S, P/B and P/CF.

4. Revenue growth is booming. Terex is expecting more than 40% growth in revenues in 2011 and consensus is for over 20% growth in sales in 2012.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in TEX, TPC over the next 72 hours.

Top Stocks For 2011-12-4-17

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (CRWE)

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (CRWE) recently announced that it has entered into a joint venture to deploy VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) technology delivering voice, video and data services to residential and commercial customers. The joint venture company is Crown Tele Services Inc. which was a wholly-owned subsidiary of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. will own fifty percent (50%) interest in the joint venture.

Commenting on the joint venture, Kenneth Bosket, President of Crown Equity Holdings Inc., said: “We are excited to deliver VoIP communications solutions specifically designed to meet the business and residential market needs in this fast-growing global market.”

Crown Equity Holdings Inc., together with its digital network, currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing, which brings together targeted audiences and advertisers. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

Internet Advertising offers a range of benefits for your business including:

Being found first in search results
Gaining an advantage over your competitors
Attaining the highest rate of traffic to your website
Taking your position as your industry’s leader
Attracting more quality sales leads

For more information, please visit their website: http://www.crownequityholdings.com

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (Nasdaq:AMTD) Fred Tomczyk, chief executive officer will be speaking at the KBW 2011 Securities Brokerage & Market Structure Conference on Wednesday, November 30, 2011. The conference is being held at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in New York City.

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides securities brokerage services and technology-based financial services to retail investors, traders, and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) in the United States.

Banner Corporation (Nasdaq:BANR) announced that Mark J. Grescovich, President and CEO, is scheduled to present at the FBR 2011 Fall Investor Conference in New York. Banner’s presentation is on Tuesday, November 29, 2011, at 12:50 p.m. EST. The live and archived presentation can be viewed at www.bannerbank.com.

Banner Corporation operates as the holding company for Banner Bank and Islanders Bank that provide commercial banking and financial products and services to individuals, businesses, and public sector entities.

Elmira Savings Bank (Nasdaq:ESBK) has declared a $0.22 per share cash dividend on their existing common shares outstanding and a 10% stock dividend on their existing common shares outstanding. The cash dividend will be paid on December 28, 2011 to shareholders of record December 9, 2011. The Bank also declared a dividend on their preferred shares outstanding.

The Elmira Savings Bank, FSB provides various banking products and services to individual and commercial customers in New York.

Eurozone Crisis: The View From Singapore

 

With total trade amounting to three times its GDP, Singapore is one of the world�s more open economies. That makes it a canary in the proverbial coal mine during a global slump. So its warning of an imminent slowdown amid a protracted Eurozone crisis tells you that trouble may be afoot. Singapore�s government predicted last week that growth would slow to 1-3% in 2012, compared to an estimated 5% uptick this year and a dramatic 14.5% post-recession bounce in 2010. Talk about volatility. In its statement, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said its 2012 forecast excludes the downside risk of a �full-blown financial crisis in the developed economies�. So much for the decoupling of Asia from its Western trade partners. Yet it�s also misleading to extrapolate too much from tiny Singapore�s statistics, since it�s not exactly representative of developing Asia. Indonesia and Malaysia recently posted decent 3Q growth, and Thailand�s slowdown is a flood-related supply shock, not a fall in demand. Then there�s China, which rattled markets last week when a monthly manufacturing indicatorfell sharply.

Singapore isn�t only a trade-led bellwether. It�s also a global financial hub that�s brimming with Asia watchers who are plugged into the region�s economic prospects and its downside risks. Of course, by far the biggest risk is a Eurozone crisis that sinks banks in core economies and splinters the currency union. This would have a major impact on Asia�s output, says Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist for IHS, as such a systemic shock to global markets could overwhelm domestic growth engines in countries like India and China. Singapore-based Biswas puts the chance of a Euro-wipeout at 35%. A more likely scenario, on which IHS has based its latest growth forecasts, is that Europe avoids a meltdown while going into a mild recession. He puts this possibility at 60%. Biswas argues that Europe can still pull through, provided that its rescue fund is properly capitalised and the European Central Bank backstops sovereign lenders. �You could stabilise the markets,� he says. On this basis, IHS predicts stronger growth next year for Asia, up from 4.6% in 2011 to 5.4% in 2012. Japan�s post-quake expansion would offset weaker growth in smaller economies, while a soft landing in China would see growth slowing to 8.1%, down from 9.7%.

As CEO for Southeast Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, Ray Ferguson is acutely aware of the credit risks in the region in the event of a Eurozone meltdown. Compared to the Lehman crash in 2008, Europe�s debt crisis is a �slow burning fire,� he says. Like Biswas, Ferguson think it more likely than not that Europe will pull out of its tailspin, though he declines to put a percentage on either scenario. As an emerging-markets lender, Standard Chartered has virtually no exposure to European sovereign debt (other UK banks are less lucky). But tighter credit in Europe is rippling outwards to trade-oriented markets in Asia, along with a corresponding slowdown in demand, which keeps Ferguson on alert. �It�s more about the outlook for 2012-13 than managing a crisis now in November,� he tells Forbes. �The wheels of commerce are still moving.� He remains bullish on Indonesia as a fast growing economy with underserved consumer credit markets. Standard Chartered has a 44.5% stake in Indonesia�s Bank Permata and advised the Indonesian government on its recent $1 billion Islamic bond issue.

Ironies abound in the reversal of fortune between emerging markets like Indonesia, which was virtually bankrupt just over a decade ago, and Europe�s sovereign borrowers. France�s 10-year bond currently yields 3.7% and is ripe for attack by short sellers. By contrast, Standard Chartered last week sold Indonesia�s 7-year bond with a yield equivalent to 4%, suggesting that the chance of being repaid is only slightly lower than in France, a G7 country. Another irony: Western banks stuffed with default-prone paper were only following the guidelines of their regulators. As Biswas points out, Basel II rules require banks to set aside more risk-weighted capital against wholesale lending to emerging markets like Indonesia. Lending to triple-A rated governments in Europe, however, was judged to be a safer investment and therefore required lower loss reserves. Not surprisingly, bankers responded by buying up sovereign paper issued by countries like Italy and Greece. �Sovereign bonds in the European Union turned out to be the biggest risk of all,� says Biswas.

SM: The Dumbest Investment Move

There are plenty of stupid investments you can make in this world. Stock in Pets.com and Washington Mutual didn't work out so well. Nor did those Las Vegas condos. Some of the social media and Web 2.0 stocks flying high on Wall Street will probably follow suit. But the most foolish investment of all may be right in front of you. And there's a worrying chance you're buying it. The investment? Stock in your own employer.

More From Brett Arends

• The Real Reasons the Rich Are Moving Cash to the Caymans
• The Problem With the Global Bond Markets

Late last year the Employee Benefits Research Institute, a think tank, published its most recent study of 401(k) retirement plans. The good news is that employees overall cut their exposure to their employers' stock; it accounted for only 8 percent of all 401(k) assets in 2010, continuing a downward trend that goes back to 1999, reported EBRI's Jack VanDerhei and colleagues.

The fine print isn't quite so good, it turns out. According to EBRI's data, only about 40 percent of workers were members of plans which offered company stock as an option. Employees in those plans are still investing from 16 to 19 percent of their plan portfolios, on average, in their employer's stock. At the same time, they have been shrinking their overall equity exposure dramatically. For those employees, company stock accounts, remarkably, for about a third of their entire equity exposure in the plan.

The ROI column in the March issue of Smart Money contained an error. The article reported that about 40 percent of 401(k) plans offered company stock as an investment option. It should have read that about 40% of workers were members of plans which offered company stock as an option.

 Owning Company Stock in 401(k) Could Cost You4:40

SmartMoney columnist Brett Arends is on Mean Street to make the point that among the many dumb investment decisions one can make, owning your company stock in your 401(k) ranks near the top of that list. Photo: Reuters.

One dollar in your employer for each two dollars spread across all the other companies out there? It makes no sense.

But isn't it a good idea for employees to own a piece of the firm? Doesn't it incentivize them to work for the good of the company, to create value and put stockholders first? Phooey. This is what you hear, but it's little better than Orwellian propaganda. None of it stacks up.

Let's look at the flaws: First, you already have a big investment in your employer. You work there. If you are hoping to work there for some time, it may well be the biggest investment in your portfolio.

Bet Against Bosses

Investors who buy their employer's stock are making a very big wager on their company's success. In theory, the safer play would be to find investments that make money if the employer hits a rough patch.

Put options are one relatively inexpensive approach. Puts are contracts that give an investor the right to sell a stock at a predetermined price within a specified time range. If the price of a stock goes down, the put options effectively become more valuable. For example, if shares in Employer Inc. sink from $50 to $25, an investor who owned a $40 put option on Employer Inc. could buy shares at the $25 market price and sell them for the "strike" price of $40, earning a handsome profit.

The prices of puts are called "premiums"; if an investor chooses not to exercise his option (say, if the stock doesn't sink), he loses the premium. Wading in can get complicated, so first-timers may want to consult their broker for guidance.

The value of an investment comes from its cash flow. Let's say you're hoping to earn a modest $45,000 a year for the next 10 years. An annuity producing that series of cash flows might cost you about $380,000. For 20 years: Nearly $600,000.

No, a job and an annuity aren't identical -- annuities don't demand you work for the money. But the analogy is useful. Your cash flow already gives you a huge stake in the company. Do you need to double down?

Legions of workers did just that and became two-time losers. Their employer collapsed. They lost their incomes and their savings at the same time. Think of Enron. Think of WorldCom. Think of all those who worked at banks that collapsed in 2008. Bank of America and Citigroup avoided bankruptcy, but their stocks fell to pennies on the dollar.

In theory, at least, it would make more sense to bet against your employer -- or your entire industry -- than on it. That way, you're protected against an industry-wide meltdown. Any Lehman Brothers staffers who bought "put" options on the banking industry, or default swaps that paid out if their company imploded, would have had a better 2008.

The second problem with investing in your own employer's stock? It's based on the theory that you'll benefit from the company's improved performance and that you'll be incentivized to contribute. You'll be a stockholder as well as an employee, and you'll think like one. Employees buying company stock think they will have some influence over how it does.

Good luck with that.

The theory's fine if you work for yourself, or in a small partnership. But in a company of 500 or 1,000? Dream on. No matter how hard you work, you won't have any material effect on the share price. The only individuals who can do that are the senior executives.

Getting Wiser

Though Investors are holding less of their employers' stock in their 401(k)s, some experts say they still hold too much.

• 2010: 8%
• 2005: 13%
• 2000: 19%

Speaking of whom: Many people who buy company stock think they are following safely in the footsteps of top executives. But this, too, is an illusion. Even if the CEO holds $10 million in company stock, so what? His financial situation is totally different from yours. He may hold $50 million in other investments. If he gets canned, he may have a golden parachute and a network of golden handshakes to fall back on. So the "big bet" he's taking may not be what it seems.

And are CEOs really investing in the company? Most just get free stock and options -- which they then sell. Among top executives, stock "sales outweigh purchases by a substantial margin," says Lucien Bebchuk, a Harvard professor and a leading expert on executive pay; most of them, he adds, "keep getting equity incentives as part of their compensation and they unload them over time."

Vickers Stock Research, which follows executive trades, says that over time, the amount of stock sold by U.S. executives outweighs the amount bought by more than two to one. Do you think they know something?

Corrections & Amplifications The ROI column in the March issue of Smart Money contained an error. The article reported that about 40 percent of 401(k) plans offered company stock as an investment option. It should have read that about 40% of workers were members of plans which offered company stock as an option.

Across-the-Board Increases in Petroleum Supplies

ByBrad Zigler

February crude oil hugged the $80 price level in overnight trading after a 2.1 percent sell-off in the Tuesday NYMEX day session, but prices sank further after a U.S. Energy Department report revealed a glut of petroleum products.

A break in the cold weather that had been bolstering fuel demand, together with an increase in Chinese bank reserve requirements, soured traders in the energy sector. Tuesday's move put front-month oil futures down 1.2 percent for the week. Gasoline prices fell by a similar degree, as heating oil prices plummeted 2.8 percent.

Crude's losses were a follow-on to the American Petroleum Institute's forecast of a 1.2-million-barrel build in supplies. API also predicted that distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, would rise by 3.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks were seen jumping by a whopping 6.8 million barrels.

Sell-side analysts also guessed that crude oil stocks rose, though their calls ranged from an 800,000-barrel build to a 1.5-million-barrel build. The Street's estimates of an increase in gasoline stocks ranged from 200,000 to 1.2 million barrels. Distillate supplies were seen falling between 1.3 million and 2.2 million barrels.

Actual inventories reported by the Energy Department this morning rose across the board. Crude oil stores jumped by 3.7 million barrels, gasoline stocks rose by 3.8 million and distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels.

Even more surprising, refinery usage, expected at 80.3 percent of operable capacity, was actually clocked at 81.3 percent, a big step-up from last week's 79.9 percent utilization rate.

Gasoline demand averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, up 0.4 percent from the same period last year, while daily distillate fuel consumption averaged 3.7 million barrels, down 4 percent from year-ago levels.

Margins narrowed this week as processors saw continuing erosion in the wintertime mix premium. And 3-2-1 operations earned a 10.3 percent spread, while distillate-heavy 2-1-1 plants cranked out a 10.5 percent gross profit.

WTI's premium over North Sea Brent held steady at $2.03 per barrel, virtually unchanged from its $2.07 level last week.

There was a bigger shift in the NYMEX three-month roll, which contracted 20 cents to $1.63 a barrel.

Refining Margin Vs. Contango

Tuesday's price decline in February crude sent the contract below its 10-day moving average.

Stochastics and RSI indicators have turned bearish, while MACD is showing signs of rotating lower near term. Further declines would put the 20-day moving average of $78.49 as the next downside target. Resistance on the upside would first be encountered at the 10-day moving average crossing at $81.20.

Strengthening Your Comprehension On Technical Analysis Tools

I personally support the assumption that an adequate comprehension of technical analysis can lead to higher trading or investment success. The method is commonly applied to forecast future price trends through the process of evaluating historical market action. Every market participant should familiarize themselves with valuable technical analysis tools and concepts if they want to strengthen their capability in applying the method in their trades and investments.

Below are the essential technical analysis tools that we need to familiarize ourselves with:

Trends

They refer to the path the price is going. The steepness of the existing trend is determined by the “rising peaks and troughs” and the “falling peaks and troughs”. A trend reversal is usually indicated by a trend break. A trading range is distinguished by “horizontal peaks and troughs”.

Waves

This is explained by the Elliot wave theory. It is a type of market analysis that is based on the Fibonacci number sequence and the recurring wave patterns. Appealing Eliot wave patterns display a five-wave advance then afterwards a three wave decline.

Number Assumption

The Fibonacci number sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21… ) is created by adding the first two numbers to acquire the third. A well-known Fibonacci retracement number is 62% in which is derived from the ratio of any number to the next bigger number.

Stochastic Oscillator

Stochastic Oscillator is one of the technical analysis tools used to determine the oversold/overbought status usually on a range of 0-100%. This indicator is supported by the observation on strong up trend in which period closing prices will usually focus in the upper part of the period’s range. The two lines (%K and %D) that stochastic calculations produce are valuable indicators of oversold/overbought areas on a chart. The variance between the underlying instruments’ price action and stochastic lines emits a strong trading hint.

Gaps

These are areas seen on the bar chart in which no trading has transpired. An up gap is a sign of market stability in which is usually formed when the cheapest price on a trading day is larger than the previous trading day’s highest price. Conversely, the down gap is a sign of market vulnerability in which it is formed when the largest price of current trading day is lower than the previous day’s cheapest price.

Breakaway gaps signify the start of a significant price change. A runaway gap happens around the middle of a significant trend in the market. An exhaustion gap is a sign of a trend’s coming conclusion.

Gann Numbers

This assumption explains the significance of using the angles in the charts to identify the resistance and support areas as well as forecast when the changes of coming trends will occur. In addition, it uses the charts’ lines to forecast resistance and support areas.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD

It is a display that involves the plotting of two momentum lines namely the MACD line and signal or trigger line. You will find the difference between two exponential moving averages in the MACD line while the exponential moving average of the difference is seen in signal or trigger line. The intersection of the MACD and trigger lines can signify a high probability change in trend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI involves the computation of the ratio of up-moves to down-moves then balances the computation in order for the index to be articulated in a range of 0-100. The instrument is believed to be overbought when the RSI is 70 or more. An instrument is believed to be oversold when the RSI is 30 or less.

The most commonly used technical analysis tools are the DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) a tool used to identify whether a currency pair is trending or not and the Coppock Curve, a tool used for forecasting bear market lows.

John Conejos is a financial analyst who is keen in knowing about the changes in market condition. He believes that with the right strategies for trading, everyone has a chance of gaining the huge rewards in the trading market. Visit Derivative Trading Systems and download its FREE e-book on the three highly valuable technical analysis strategies that can assist you with your trading decisions.

Stronger Market Helps Western Digital Surpass Estimates

Western Digital Corp. (WDC) reported fiscal second quarter 2011 earnings of 96 cents per share, comprehensively beating Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents per share. Earnings decreased 48.1% year-over-year but it increased 14.3% sequentially.

Western Digital’s revenue of $2.48 billion also surpassed Zacks Revenue Estimate of $2.35 billion. Management cited that the better-than-expected results reflected on solid execution and improvement in hard drive industry conditions compared with the previous two quarters. However, revenues went down 5.3% when compared with the same quarter of prior year.

Quarter in Detail
Hard drive unit shipments increased 5.5% to 52.2 million year-over-year.

Cost of revenue increased marginally 3.5% to $2.0 billion from the year ago quarter.

Both gross profit and net profit gave a gloomy picture as they decreased 30.9% to $475 million and 47.6% to $225 million, respectively, compared on a year over year basis. Joining the league, operating profit also decreased 49.3% to $240 million on a year over year basis.

However, contradictory to the trend in the last quarter, net profit recorded a sequential increase in the reported quarter. All the three, namely gross profit, net profit and operating profit increased 8.7%, 14.2% and 13.7%, respectively, on a sequential basis.

Management expects to continue its focus on quality, reliability, product availability, low-cost structure and is looking to utilize the opportunities by matching production with true customer demand. Moreover, management believes that there is ample opportunity for profitable growth in the industry and Western Digital remains committed to improve the financial performance over the long-term.

Conclusion
Estimates for the quarter have been stable in the run-up to the earnings release, with 2 analysts raising estimates in the last 30 days and one analyst reducing estimates. The full-year estimate for next year has been trending up in recent days, with two positive revisions in the last thirty days.

The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2012 of $3.50 is up from $3.48 thirty days ago. The full-year Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2011 is $2.60 and has remained stable over the last 30 days.

We currently have a Zacks #2 Rank for Western Digital, which translates into a Buy rating on a short term basis.

Western Digital faces intense competition in the hard disk manufacturing space and one of the key competitors is Seagate Technology (STX). Customer concentration is another risk. Hence we maintain our Neutral rating on Western Digital shares on a long-term basis.

Greek Stocks Leap 10%

Greek stocks rallied sharply ahead of Parliamentary elections scheduled for the weekend, while most European markets were weighed down by slumping technology shares and worries over a fresh downgrade for Spain.

The benchmark Stoxx 600 index closed down 0.3% to 241.84. Greece's ASE index had its biggest percentage gain this year, climbing 10% at 550.10. Spain's IBEX 35 increased 1.2% to 6696.00 and Italy's FTSE MIB gained 1.5% to 13084.62.

Elsewhere, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index dropped 0.3% to 5467.05, led lower by the heavily weighted miners, France's CAC-40 ticked up 0.1% to 3032.45 and Germany's DAX closed 0.2% lower at 6138.61.

Pressure remained on European bond yields after Moody's Investors Service's downgraded Spain's credit rating late Wednesday by three notches to just one notch above junk status. Spain's 10-year bonds rose to a euro-area record high of 6.96%, according to Tradeweb. Greece, Ireland and Portugal were previously forced to request bailouts when their bond yields rose above 7%.

The Italian government's borrowing costs soared at a bond auction over previous sales, although the government sold the maximum targeted €4.5 billion ($5.65 billion) amid decent demand. In the secondary market, yields on 10-year Italian government bonds rose to 6.11%, according to Tradeweb.

Yields on Spain's 10-year bonds were at 6.93% in late trading in New York from 6.76% Wednesday. Italy's 10-year bonds yielded 6.13% from 6.23% Wednesday.

"The proposed bailout of Spain's banks not only failed to provide a firewall for Spain against further contagion but rather made matters far worse," Rabobank said in a report.

Despite the investor concerns over the euro zone, Greek stocks saw sharp gains following unofficial polling data that reportedly pointed to a victory for the pro-austerity party New Democracy. Sunday's election is seen as a close race between the antiausterity party Syriza and the New Democracy party, which wants to largely adhere to bailout pledges. Public opinion polls can't be openly released as Greek law forbids their publication in the last two weeks of campaigning.

The gains were led by the country's banks. Alpha Bank shares soared 29.8%, EFG Eurobank Ergasias increased 24.6% and National Bank of Greece shot up 26%.

Investors were squaring positions ahead of the Greek election to avoid being caught on the wrong side, said John Ventre, fund manager at Skandia Investment Group.

The chief economist at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen, said that the poll excitement further spilled over into Spanish and Italian stock markets, where indexes erased earlier losses.

More

• Tape:Greek Elimination Matches Are Nail-Biters
• Italy Borrowing Costs Surge
• Streaming Coverage: Markets Pulse

1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Barnes & Noble?

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, book retailer Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS  ) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Barnes & Noble's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Barnes & Noble facts

Headquarters (founded)	New York (1986)
Market Cap	$731.8 million
Industry	Specialty stores
Trailing-12-Month Revenue	$7.1 billion
Management	Founder/Chairman Leonard Riggio CEO William Lynch
Trailing-12-Month Return on Equity	(7.5%)
Cash/Debt	$27.4 million / $251.6 million
Competitors	Amazon.com Apple Books-A-Million

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 53% of the 631 members who have rated Barnes & Noble believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last month, one of those Fools, NJ7, summed up the bear case for our community:

[Barnes & Noble] has been consistently losing money and missing estimates for at least two years, with an overall downward trend in earnings. While its debt to equity is decent, its current ratio is 1. ... The biggest problem for Barnes and Nobles is that the national bookstore chain is likely an endangered species, unless B&N can undercut Amazon and other online retailers' prices. I can obtain books frequently for >10% less from Amazon, and Amazon has a much greater selection. While the Nook was a good move, there is so much competition in the eReader business that B&N may well fail to profit from this. The bottom line is, the physical bookstores are a tremendous drag on B&N, with a huge amount of space to maintain ... Local bookstores with novelty items and a devoted clientele also are piling on, leading me to conclude that B&N will continue to head down.

If you want to retire rich, you need to protect your portfolio from any undue risk. Luckily, we've found another retailer we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

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Is President Obama Trying to Kill King Coal?

Is President Obama trying to kill the U.S. coal industry? In a recent campaign swing through southwestern Virginia, Republican lawmakers alleged just that.

With executives from coal miner Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and electric utilities Dominion Resources (D) and PPL (PPL) in tow, Republicans marched through the crucial swing state last week, arguing that new greenhouse gas regulations promoted by the Environmental Protection Agency would effectively ban the construction of new coal-fired power plants in the state -- by making it prohibitively expensive to build them.

Specifically, the EPA is proposing that new coal plants include "carbon-capture" technology that industry representatives say is "not cost-effective under current market conditions" and may not even help reduce carbon emissions at all. Competing fuels like natural gas not only cost less than coal, but emit about half the carbon that burning coal does. Combine this with the low prices (and lower profits) that coal companies get these days -- which don't yield enough revenue to pay for the EPA's required equipment -- and coal promoters argue that it's effectively impossible both to comply with regulations and stay in business.

The result: Coal plants cannot be built. Coal will not be bought. Coal companies will go out of business.

A Prophecy Fulfilled

It probably didn't hurt their argument that earlier this month, we saw the first high-profile U.S. coal company bankruptcy when Patriot Coal (PCXCQ.PK) filed for Chapter 11.

The headlines practically wrote themselves: "Tragedy Strikes as Obama Regs Kill Patriot!" Over the weekend, the President told local television audiences, "If we win Virginia, then we will win the election." But even if the reverse isn't necessarily true, it almost seems as if the EPA set out to write a connect-the-dots puzzle -- and the prize for completing it is kicking its own boss out of the White House.

What Does It Mean to You?

So the new EPA regs may be hard on Obama's chances in coal country. But what does this whole sooty brouhaha mean to folks here on Main Street? As with so many things in life, it's a tale of good news and bad news.

Let's tackle the bad news first: Energy prices are going up, and it's going to cost you more to heat your home (and pay your electric bill, and put fuel in your car).

You see, one of the reasons coal is so cheap right now is that natural gas is cheaper. Thanks to the fracking craze that's sweeping our nation faster than the hula hoop, natural-gas prices are close to historic lows. It's simple economics: As gas gets easier to obtain from underground shale formations, the supply rises, and the cost plunges. This undercuts the cost of more expensive-to-extract fuels such as coal and oil -- and nuclear, solar, geothermal and wind as well.

But here's the thing: The energy ecosystem is deeply interconnected. Part of the reason coal prices are low is because of the pressure from competing cheap natural gas. But if you kill King Coal (which accounts for about one-third of electricity production today), then suddenly natural gas has to carry more of the load. Demand for it increases relative to supply, and gas prices rise.

Related Articles

• This Is What the 'Death' of Coal Looks Like
• EPA Delays Fracking Rules Until 2015
• The Dastardly Demise of Patriot Coal

For that matter, even if the coal industry fails to just roll over and die -- even if just a handful of coal companies go bankrupt from higher regulatory costs -- this too raises the cost of gas and power in general. It's only a matter of degrees (pun intended), because even if coal remains an energy option, its supply is still dropping, and its ability to compete with gas declines accordingly.

Simply put, for natural gas prices to remain cheap, coal has to stick around to compete with it -- which won't happen if coal companies start shutting down.

That said, there is a silver lining to all this.

Gallery: 9 Brands That Will Disappear in 2013

If the EPA regulations come into force and coal companies go out of business, they won't be polluting the air anymore or contributing to climate change. And if it turns out that the coal companies are exaggerating the dangers to their industry and can remain in business under the new regulations and produce cleaner power, then greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced that way as well.

Is that prospect worth paying a little (or a lot) more for your electric bill? Tell us what you think below.

Motley Fool contributor Rich Smith holds no position in any company mentioned, but Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Dominion Resources.

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“Risk” Is a Four Letter Word!

When you think of investment risk, what comes to mind? Is it the recent volatility of the stock markets – up one minute, down the next? How about speculative investment derivatives, such as options or futures contracts, used to bring down Barings Bank in 1995, or the more recent occurrence in September 2011 when the Swiss Bank UBS lost over $2 billion (yes, that’s billion with a “B”!). And who hasn’t heard of Bernie Madoff and his Ponzi scheme, considered to be the largest financial fraud in US history. Makes one want to hide their money in their mattress and forget about it. Or does it?

Yes, these are definite investment risks. But there are others most people don’t know about that should be taken into consideration when choosing your investments. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a “risk-free” investment, and your individual situation will determine how much risk you can, or should, accept.

Here are some additional risks you should consider and how you may be able to minimize them:

Market Risk

The most obvious, and most talked about these days, is market risk, otherwise known as systematic risk. This is the risk that the value of an investment portfolio will decrease due to a change in factors that determine the entire market. Interest rate changes, recessions, wars, and, more recently, the European debt crisis, affect the entire market and cannot be avoided by diversification. In other words, owning the stocks of several different companies will not eliminate this risk as all stocks will likely move in the same direction in the event of bad news… down!

Company/Industry Risk

Also know as un-systematic risk, company risk can be diversified away as it is the risk to an individual company or industry, not to the market as a whole. For example, by owning the stocks of several different companies in different industries, un-systematic risk will be reduced if factors negatively affect only a few of the companies you own.

Country/Currency Risk

Country risk is the risk of investing in a country which could be adversely affected by its political and economic environment, in addition to exchange rate, sovereign and transfer (the risk of capital being frozen by government action) risks. With emerging markets being popular investment choices these days, keep these risks in mind when deciding where and how to invest. Currency risk is the potential loss arising from the change in one currency relative to another. If you are a Canadian and have stocks in the US, the total return is determined by both the return on the stocks, as well as the change in the exchange rate of the US to the Canadian dollar.

Reinvestment Risk

Normally used in the context of bonds, reinvestment risk is the risk of having to reinvest future proceeds at a lower return. This will usually occur during times of falling interest rates, where interest payments can only be reinvested at rates lower than the original yield to maturity (the expected rate of return if a bond is held to maturity).

Interest Rate Risk

Affecting bonds more than stocks, this is the risk that an investment’s value will change due to a change in interest rates while holding the bond. This is an inverse relationship where, as interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and vice versa. For example, a 10% bond purchased last month will be worth less if interest rates rise because investors could now get a higher return elsewhere in the market.

Liquidity Risk

An investment that cannot be bought or sold quickly in the market without incurring excessive costs faces liquidity risk. Liquidity risk can usually be found in emerging or low-volume markets, where the participants may have trouble finding each other.

Inflation Risk

My grandfather used to say “I remember when these only cost a dollar…” Well, that loss of purchasing power is inflation risk – the very real risk that the value of your money today will be worth less in the future. In other words, if you store your money in a mattress thinking you are avoiding risk, think again. On average, your money is eroding about 2-3% per year. Likewise, any investment that does not yield an after-tax return greater than the rate of inflation each year, such as many savings accounts, money-market funds, bank GICs, and some bonds. And while the stock market may yield negative returns in a given year, over the long-term, returns have historically been higher than the rate of inflation.

As you can see, there is such a thing as a “risk-free” investment. The way to minimize these risks is to be sure you have a well diversified portfolio of different assets classes (stocks, bonds, or their corresponding mutual funds), sectors (for stocks, financials, materials, energy, utilities, industrials are some examples of different sectors that make up the Toronto Stock Exchange), and companies.

The easiest way to achieve this is with a balanced mutual fund, but, as with any investment, don’t put your money into anything you don’t understand, and be sure to read the details of the plan before committing. Be sure you understand the risks and potential returns involved.

Joanne believes that financial independence is the cornerstone to living an empowered and enriched life… and money doesn’t have to be intimidating!

Download your FREE report “Achieve Your Financial Goals in 10 Easy Steps” here: http://www.financialskillscentre.org/free-download/

And be sure to join her Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/FinancialSkillsforWomen

Auto Parts Stocks: 3 To Drive, 3 To Park

Even though U.S. new-car sales rose 7.5% in August, don�t expect that bump to take the air out of the right auto parts stocks. Here�s why: Before the recession hit in 2008, the U.S. auto industry was selling an average of 16 million new vehicles a year. And while this year�s forecast of 12.5 million vehicles is a big improvement from the 10.4 million the industry sold two years ago, it�s a far cry from being back to �normal.”

With high unemployment, tight credit and sinking consumer confidence, fixing up the clunker in the driveway might just be the new �normal.” Since the average car on the road today is 11 years old, that translates into a continued growth opportunity for auto parts stocks.

With that in mind, here are three auto parts stocks to drive — and three to park:

Drive

AutoZone (NYSE:AZO). AutoZone on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter earnings growth of 12.1% to $301.5 million ($7.18 per share); net sales jumped 8% to $2.6 billion. Same-store sales, which measure performance against direct competitors, grew 4.5%. For the full year, sales increased 9.6% to $8.1 billion; full-year earnings rose 15% to $849 million. One key measure of AZO�s strength: for the first time in its history, commercial sales accounted for more than $1 billion. This will be a growth opportunity for AutoZone in the future. At $327.75, AZO is trading more than 53% above its 52-week low of $214 last September. With a market cap of $23.62 billion, AZO has a price/earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.14, meaning it�s only slightly overvalued.

LKQ Corp. (NASDAQ:LKQX) LKQ, which will next report earnings on Oct. 24, sells new and recycled auto parts, providing a lower-cost option for consumers. Last year�s acquisition of Cross Canada Body Parts and Paint Circuit gave LKQ a strong Canadian presence, as well as 300 more locations in North America. At $25.51, LKQ is trading more than 27% above its 52-week low of $19.94 last September. With a market cap of $3.74 billion, LKQ has a PEG ratio of 1.08, meaning it is fairly valued.

O�Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) O�Reilly, which next reports earnings on Oct. 26, boasts 3,657 stores in 39 states. ORLY said last week it has lowered its credit facility from $750 million to $660 million in exchange for lower interest rates and a longer term through 2016. ORLY set a new 52-week high of $72 on Monday and, at $70.42, is more than 36% higher than its 52-week low of $51.71 last September. With a market cap of $9.57 billion, the stock has a PEG ratio of 1.19, indicating it is slightly overvalued.

Park

Pep Boys (NYSE:PBY). While Manny, Moe and Jack earlier this month reported 31% earnings growth for the second quarter ($13.9 million), revenue rose only 3.5% ($523 million). PBY purchased the Big 10 Tire Stores chain and is generating more repair work, but same-store sales in the quarter slumped by 1.3%. PBY hit a new 52-week low of $8.18 on Aug. 9. At $9.81, PBY is trading more than 38% below its 52-week high of $15.96 in January. With a market cap of $516.73 million, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.99, meaning it is slightly undervalued. PBY last week declared a three-cent (1.2% yield) dividend.

U.S. Auto Parts Network (NASDAQ:PRTS) U.S. Auto Parts, which next reports earnings on Nov. 8, is a hybrid of old and new commerce: It sells body, engine and performance parts over the Internet. In August, it purchased the 95-year-old Whitney Automotive Group for $27.5 million and assumption of $11 million in other obligations. PRTS set a new 52-week low of $4.53 on Tuesday — more than 54% below its 52-week high of $9.97 in January. With a market cap of $138.43 million, the stock has a PEG ratio of -2.69, indicating the company is losing money.

Genuine Parts Co. (NYSE:GPC). GPC, which next reports earnings on Oct. 10, provides real NAPA replacement parts through its 58 U.S. distribution centers. Its Automotive Parts Group also includes NAPA Canada and Auto Todo in Mexico. GPC�s strength in pricier NAPA parts might be its short-term weakness: Competition is weighing on margins. At $52.18, GPC is trading 9.5% below its 52-week high of $57.66 in July. With a market cap of $8.18 billion, it has a PEG ratio of 1.4, meaning it�s slightly overvalued. Still, the company has paid a dividend every year since 1968 — the current yield is 3.4%.

As of this writing, Susan J. Aluise did not hold a position in any of the stocks named here.

European Pensions and Why Pension Funds Should Be Resilient to Turbulent Economic Conditions

According to data released by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), private pension funds lost a staggering twenty-three per cent of their value in 2008. The stock marker collapse has developed into an economic crisis, with pension funds falling from declining and earnings and rising unemployment denting pension contributions. Public pensions are being affected by the rise in unemployment benefits and fiscal stimulus packages putting a strain on the public purse.

The largest of the private pension fund losses was felt in Ireland, where losses of thirty-seven per cent were recorded. The Czech Republic experienced the smallest losses below ten per cent.

Stock markets across the world have plummeted since last year, so the diverse range of private pension losses can’t be explained by relative losses in the markets. How these pension funds were invested seems to be the deciding factor. While stock markets in OECD countries fell by around forty-five per cent in 2008, Government bonds tended to rise, with the international index up by over seven per cent in 2008.

The countries whose pension funds invested more in bonds than in stocks like the Czech Republic and Slovakia seemed to have fared better than English-speaking countries where pension funds tended to be invested in equities.

Poland’s private pensions lost more than other Central European countries because of a law which was supposed to aid the Polish stock market. Open Pension Funds (OPFs) are limited to investing only 5% of their assets outside Poland. While this had meant the Warsaw Stock Exchange is important to the region, but the over-population of funds in the local market drove the over-valuation of Polish stocks; a bubble which burst when the economic crisis swept through.

While private financial sources make up over forty per cent of retirement incomes in Australia, Canada, the UK and US, they only make up five per cent of incomes in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland.

For younger workers in these areas though, pensions are expected to provide a significant chunk of retirement incomes. Pension funds being resilient to turbulent economic conditions is of paramount importance for this new breed of worker.

Adam Cain writes on a number of subjects on behalf of a number of different businesses and organisations.

Pensions Regulator is the UK regulator of work-based pension schemes, working to improve confidence in work-based pensions by protecting members’ benefits and encouraging high standards and good practice in running pension schemes

http://www.thepensionsregulator.gov.uk/

In India, Facebook Uses Google AdWords to Leapfrog Orkut

By Robin Wauters

Different territories demand different marketing approaches. Google (GOOG), for instance, has been spotted taking the unusual route of promoting their search engine and Chrome browser with print advertising campaigns in India and The Netherlands, respectively.

And now a reader informs us that Facebook is buying Google ads on the search giant’s India portal (Google.co.in). You can see some examples embedded in this post or on our tipster’s blog.

It’s impossible to determine if this is new, but perhaps Indian TechCrunch readers can tell us if these just started popping up or if they’ve been running for a while. I’ve been trying out searches for people on a couple of other country portals but haven’t seen any Google AdWords campaigns from Facebook at first glance. We’ve contacted Facebook for more information.

The move is fairly ironic for two distinct reasons: first, because Facebook has been struggling to become the leader in social networking in India at the expense of Orkut, which is of course a Google service (it depends on who you ask which one is effectively leading, but Facebook has definitely been making strides all around the world).

Second: in June 2009, Facebook hired away Google’s Grady Burnett, who had been leading the Mountain View company’s AdWords business in Ann Arbor, Mich. He’s now Director, Global Online and Inside sales at Facebook.

Also noteworthy: when you effectively click through on one of these Facebook ads, you don’t actually run a search query on the person you’ve been looking for – it just redirects you to the Facebook homepage where you have to renew your search to find him or her. Surely, there must be ways to improve that process?

Have you spotted any Facebook advertising on Google in your country? Let us know.

(Thanks for the tip, Ricky)

Original post

For the more than 36 million Americans who will turn 65 in the coming decade, the best cities and towns to retire in now have a much higher bar to clear: They can't just be great places -- they have to be affordable. Each week, SmartMoney.com tours a different state to find less-expensive alternatives to the most well-known golden year destinations.

The American South, with its verdant landscapes and trademark charm, is a natural magnet for many retirees. But if there's one Southern state that's often overlooked, it's Mississippi.

Also See

Retire Here, Not There: State-by-State Forget your parents' retirement destinations. These less-known gems offer lower prices and peppy economies.

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And there are many things about Mississippi that may suit retirees, says Tim Medley, a partner at Medley & Brown Financial Advisors in Jackson, Miss. The state charges no income tax on certified retirement income like 401(k)s and IRAs, the cost of living is low and housing prices are some of the most affordable in the country. The warm weather is another big plus, with mild winters across the state and miles of Gulf Coast beaches on which to enjoy it.

Of course, the Magnolia State does has some deep challenges, say experts: Its education system is ranked well below average and it has the highest poverty and obesity rates in the country. Summers are sweltering and mosquito-filled. On top of that, homeowner insurance rates can be very high near the Gulf, especially after Hurricane Katrina, says John Bergland Jr., founder of Bergland Wealth Management in Ridgeland, Miss. What's more, a lot of the smaller towns in the state are isolated rural outposts with little to recommend them.

But for those willing to get past some of those drawbacks, experts say Mississippi does offer a wealth of culturally rich places to retire, including charming southern towns like Oxford and Hattiesburg. "Mississippi gives you an opportunity for a slower paced lifestyle," says Bergland. Here are four places to consider.

Oxford: For the intellectual A reading at Rowan Oak, which had been William Faulkner's home for 32 years / Getty Images By the numbers

• Population: 13,258
• Median home cost: $191,600
• Cost of living: 1.1% higher than average
• Unemployment: 7.1%

While Oxford may be unknown to some Americans, the town is famous among avid readers. It's the birthplace of literary giant William Faulkner -- and the model for several cities in his books. It's also home to living authors such as Richard Ford, John Grisham and Curtis Wilkie. Ole Miss, (the University of Mississippi ) is the intellectual home base for the state. As part of its lifelong learning program, seniors can take up to four hours of courses each semester for free -- perfect for the retiree who wishes he'd paid more attention to those literature, art history or language classes in college.

Retirement pros say the friendly residents and attractive downtown give Oxford a heavy dose of Southern charm. There's even have a 'newcomers club' to help retirees meet new friends, says Christy Knapp, the executive vice president of economic development. In the center of town is "The Square," which is dotted with a number of locally owned restaurants, boutiques and art galleries. "Oxford offers the urban lifestyle with a southern small town feel," says Knapp. There is also a major hospital within the city limits.

One drawback: International and numerous direct domestic flights are only available in Memphis, 72 miles away. Not ideal for the retiree who's hoping to travel frequently.

Gulfport: For the beach bum Ferry boats at the Port of Gulfport / iStockPhoto By the numbers

• Population: 68,116
• Median home cost: $124,500
• Cost of living: 7.2% lower than average
• Unemployment: 10.3%

Those who find walking in flip-flops and the sound of waves lapping against the shore might consider Gulfport. Though it was severely damaged by Hurricane Katrina, the city is rapidly being rebuilt and has much to offer, says Bergland. As the second largest city in Mississippi, Gulfport has plenty of restaurants, including renowned seafood spots, and lots of shopping and recreation. Nearby casinos offer another diversion. What's more, New Orleans is only an hour and a half away so retirees can easily indulge in the Big Easy's jazz and arts scene. Gulfport also has a thriving senior center that sponsors events and helps organize volunteer activities.

The main attraction, however, is the six miles of white sand beaches and calm Gulf of Mexico waters with all the sunning, fishing, boating and shelling you could want. Retirees can also take a ferry from Gulfport to West Ship Island, a barrier island known for quality shelling and swimming. The best part: Life on the beach comes at a cost of living that's 7.2% lower than the national average. Take that, Florida.

Hattiesburg: For the explorer The University of Southern Mississippi Marching Band / Wiki Commons By the numbers

• Population: 51,617
• Median home cost: $103,900
• Cost of living: 10.6% lower than average
• Unemployment: 11.5%

Locals call it "The Hub City" and the name is well earned. Hattiesburg is roughly an hour and a half from Jackson, the state capital, and the Gulf Coast, and a little under two hours away from New Orleans. "Retirees love it here because they can easily travel to diverse places," says Valencia Williamson, the vice president of the area development partnership for the Chamber of Commerce.

But Hattiesburg has much going for it. The three local colleges -- University of Southern Mississippi, William Carey and Pearl River Community College -- offer lifelong learning opportunities and sponsor frequent events such as concerts and speakers. This month, for example, the University of Southern Mississippi presented an exhibit of drawings by well-known artist John Heliker, as well as a symphony concert. Hattiesburg also has a small, but thriving, historic downtown area anchored by the Saenger Theater for performances. The nearby Hattiesburg Cultural Center hosts an art gallery and historic museum. Plus, the historical society and the parks and recreation department welcome senior volunteers.

The town, however, may not work for retirees looking to work during their golden years, say experts: Unemployment is 11.5%, compared to the national rate of 8.3%.

Olive Branch: For the music lover Memphis Area Chamber of Commerce By the numbers

• Population: 33,524
• Median home cost: $168,800
• Cost of living: 5.6% lower than average
• Unemployment: 7.4%

This town, just over the Tennessee state line, is actually a suburb of Memphis, which means easy access to the top-notch cultural and music events that the River City has to offer. In Memphis, which is known for the blues, residents find great live music every day and night of the week. Follow up with a meal at one of the city's more than 1,110 restaurants or a visit to one of the dozens of art galleries.

Of course, living in the burbs has a downside, say advisers: If you go into Olive Branch frequently, traffic and parking can be a hassle. But residents say it's worth it. "Olive Branch has a small town, quiet atmosphere and a low crime rate," says Vickie Dupree, the executive director of the Olive Branch Chamber of Commerce. "But we are a suburb of Memphis so there is all the arts you could want." Retirees can also take advantage of the quality health care and international airport that Memphis offers, as well as the arts events -- like "Primer Martes" a series of monthly art exhibits in February, March and April -- that go on right in Olive Branch.

Will CyberDefende get back Good Name from Personal Internet Security 2011?

As soon as CyberDefender Corporation (NASDAQ:CYDE) reported its third-quarter results, the stock began to sink down. In just about a month, the stock lost 30% of its market price and reached $2.27 per share. What has influence the CYDE stock price to such extent?

On December 21, 2010, the day when the company announced its financial results, its stock aimed the bottom of the chart. Probably because its loss from operations rocketed from $3.9 million dollars to $10.6 million dollars, which is 171% up by end of September. After finding out this fact, investors didn’t care for the 178% increased gross sales of CYDE and preferred to keep the safe side.

Presently, traders are waiting for the fourth-quarter report and the annual results of CyberDefender to see if the company has recovered the losses. Meanwhile, the provider of Internet security software, utilities and Live PC Support services might also get its good name by dealing with the most dangerous malware on the web, such as rogue anti-spyware soft Personal Internet Security 2011 (be sure that you remove this threat by following the instructions provided).

In case CyberDefender suggests good products and is able to help clients who pay money for fixing their machines, the company would not only earn more cash but would also earn a good reputation among investors. Thus, if quarterly and annual results don’t affect CYDE stock price, it’s possible Personal Internet Security 2011 to do that instead.

Top Stocks For 2011-12-11-16

DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

Friday July 24, 2009

OXiGENE, Inc. (Nasdaq:OXGN), a clinical-stage, biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutics to treat cancer and eye diseases, will report second quarter 2009 results on Thursday, July 30, 2009. A conference call and webcast hosted by OXiGENE management will begin at 10:00 a.m. EDT (7:00 a.m. PDT).

LPP, the largest clothing retailer in Central and Eastern Europe, met 31 pre-screened Greater China suppliers at Global Sources’ (Nasdaq: GSOL) Custom Private Sourcing Event ( http://www.PrivateSourcingEvents.com ) in Shanghai on July 16, 2009.

Chemspec International Limited (NYSE: CPC), a leading China-based contract manufacturer of highly-engineered specialty chemicals, today announced two recent senior management appointments: Dr. Jinhua (Jim) Chen was promoted to the vice president of process research and development, and Dr. Yuelie Lu was appointed as the vice president of pharmaceutical business development.

51job, Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), a leading provider of integrated human resource services in China, announced today that it will release unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2009 after the market closes on Thursday, August 6, 2009. Following the earnings announcement, management will hold a conference call the same day at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Shanghai / Hong Kong time zone on August 7, 2009) to discuss its second quarter 2009 financial results, operating performance and business outlook.

Tower Financial Corporation (Nasdaq:TOFC) reported a second quarter 2009 loss of $4.1 million, or $1.00 per diluted share, compared with net income of $343,000, or $0.08 per share, reported for the second quarter 2008. This brings the year to date net loss to $3.7 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, compared to year to date net income of $1.0 million, or $0.26 per share at June 30, 2008.

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) today reported second-quarter revenue of $5.53 billion versus $6.00 billion in the first quarter of 2009, and $6.75 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

Advanced Energy Gains Inverter Market Share by Acquiring PV Powered

by Eric Wesoff

The global solar inverter market is roughly $2 billion and growing healthily, along with the PV market. But market dynamics in the inverter field are very different than in the solar module field. While the biggest PV module vendors, First Solar (FSLR) or SunTech (STP) have market shares in the 15 percent range -- the PV inverter market is dominated by a five hundred pound gorilla -- SMA with a market share greater than 38 percent. The other hundred inverter companies have to content themselves with dividing up the remaining 60 percent of the market, although there are certainly different inverter sectors -- residential, commercial and utility.

An obvious strategy to gain market share quickly is acquisition. That's just what Advanced Energy Industries (Nasdaq:AEIS) has done in announcing the acquisition of PV Powered. PV Powered, a privately-held Bend, Oregon-based inverter company will soon be a wholly owned subsidiary of Advanced Energy.

While SMA is a leader in European residential applications, companies like Advanced Energy, PV Powered, Xantrex (XARXF.PK), Satcon (SATC), and Solectria are dominant in the U.S. market. PV Powered is profitable, according to the firm, and has shipped over 16,000 units since 2003.

I spoke with Gregg Patterson, CEO and Erick Petersen, the Vice President of Sales and Marketing at PV Powered. The acquisiiton is not just about added market share. For PV Powered, Advanced Energy [AE] gives it international reach and the project "bankability" that is necessary in the maturing solar industry. AE had full year 2009 sales of $186.4 million, 43.3% below sales of $328.9 million in 2008 which reflects a drop in its semiconductor business.

PV Powered boasts a 97 percent CEC efficiency for its inverter products. In Patterson's view -- PV Powered and AE are the innovation leaders in this market and the leading U.S. inverter suppliers. AE's 97.5 percent efficient bipolar, transformerless design makes it a leader in utility-scale applications. PV Powered transformer-based products focus on residential and commercial applications although its 260 kilowatt unit is used as a building block in 2- or 3-megawatt projects. AE's high-voltage DC and transformerless solution allows direct connection to medium voltage for utility-scale usage. PV Powered’s commercial inverters offer the industry’s first comprehensive 20 year extended warranty.

When queried about microinverters and DC-to-DC boost products, the PV Powered CEO had a clear leaning towards the DC-to-DC boost products which work in tandem with a centralized inverter. Patterson said that microinverters are more of a niche product and that the DC-to-DC products address a far different problem. He feels that the DC-DC solution is a technically more comprehensive approach to a bigger set of challenges than microinverters are addressing, and the microinverter's role in the market is in residential applications. Enphase might differ with that view.

Patterson said, "We don't see microinverters being competitive on cost in the long-term with centralized inverters." PV powered has a collaborative effort with DC-boost firms eIQ Energy, Tigo Energy, Phobos Energy and others, to evaluate and advance DC-to-DC technology to see "if the promise delivers in the real world" and to "demonstrate the reality under sun."

The CEO says that he's heard from customers and they say that there are two inverter companies doing things differently on efficiency and reliability: PV Powered and Advanced Energy.

Hugh Kuhn, the COO and SVP of Solar Power Partners, positioning himself for price negotiations, had this to say:

"Solar Power Partners was thrilled to hear the news of the acquisition of PV Powered by AE, for we are customers of both companies and understand the great synergies that the combination will bring to the market. We expect to see considerable change in the power conditioning end of the business in the next few years, and PV Powered and AE are emerging as new leaders in terms of innovation, quality, reliability, functionality and price. The combined firm should be a highly competitive force in the industry."

Disclosure: No positions

Dark Pool Trading

Dark pool trading is the volume of institutional trading orders not available to the public. Most dark pool trades are done on anonymous block trades separate from the rest of the market and away from the public. As such, dark pool trading has a lesser impact on the market because the release of trade details is not required until after the trade is complete.

When it comes to understanding and utilizing dark pool trade systems, information is important. According to a recent article in ITWorld, there are over 40 such systems currently functioning in the United States.

There are three areas of dark trade systems – independent trade systems, which are established to create a separate trading basis; broker-owned, which created when a broker’s clients are allowed to create and access the pool anonymously, and public exchange, which is an exchange infrastructure is established but anonymity is allowed and orders are not displayed.

The dark pools are part of the national consolidated tape and are marked as over-the-counter. Over-the-counter transactions do not have to be reported to clients unless the crossing network desires to release the information or companies are under contractual obligation to inform clients.

The primary feature of these so-called pools is non-advertised liquidity, which means that the movement of the pool affects the market less since the motion is not transparent. Many investors like these kind of trades because their actions are not evident to others and their identity is not revealed. In addition, the transaction costs are traditionally less.

One of the biggest benefits to the system is that large equity blocks move quietly without affecting the price or the information network at large. This is most commonly utilized by institutional investors seeking to make a large block order without tipping their hand to global investors, which might in turn affect the price of the security. However, the silent nature of the transaction ends once the order is executed, as regulations then require release of the information to the public. Examples of institutional investors include pension funds and mutual fund companies.

These kinds of trades happen on specific trading platforms that automatically track other pools, exchanges and networks for price information. Some software only shows interested firms orders that specifically match their desired sell or buy characteristics in order to reduce overall chatter about the pool.

It is important to note that other investors may still sell or buy their stocks in advance if they catch wind of a particular dark pool trade.

According to Investopedia.com, dark pools constituted almost 10 percent of equity trade volume in the U.S. in 2008. As dark pool trades grow in size, the Securities and Exchange Commission is starting to feel concern that publicly displayed securities quotes are inaccurate due to the large volume of trading that is happening off the exchange. As such, do not be surprised to see dark pool trading changing the game more and more as the trend grows.

Dark pool trading strategies are helping companies improve their bottom line; learn more on our webpage.

Resolve to Collect More Option Premium This Year

2012 is finally here and it is time to make some resolutions. As an option trader, the first resolution you should make is to trade more covered calls. Otherwise, there�s premium you could be collecting to either help reduce your stock price or give you some extra monthly income that you�re leaving on the table for other investors to scoop up.

Be sure to claim that �extra� money for yourself, because no one deserves it more! I�ll help you get started today. There are plenty of stocks that had a rough third quarter in 2011 and are now trying to make their way back to former levels. Here is a trade idea based on one of those stocks.

United Therapeutics Corp. (NASDAQ:UTHR) is a biotechnology company that develops and sells products to patients with chronic and life-threatening conditions. The company has an excellent balance sheet and has almost $400 million in cash on its books.

Notably, the CEO has been purchasing quite a few shares of company stock since the beginning of December. Many analysts rate this stock as a �Strong Buy.� With all these positives going for it, I�m inclined to agree.

The theory on this covered call trade example is this:

UTHR has had a nice move up since its lows in October. The stock is currently trading at a resistance level right around the $47 area. As is often the case, it might have trouble getting through that area before heading higher.

The next area of resistance is right below $52, where the current 200-day simple moving average resides. With all this overhead resistance, it may be hard for the stock to really go on a bullish run, which makes a covered call a practical trade idea.

Making the UTHR Covered Call Trade

With UTHR trading here at $47.82, you could�

Example: Buy 100 shares of UTHR @ $47.80 and sell the Feb 50 Call @ $1.55

Cost of the stock: 100 X $47.82 = $4,782 debit

Premium received: 100 X $1.55 = $155 credit

Maximum profit: $373 — that�s $218 ($50 � $47.82 X 100) from the stock and $155 from the premium received if UTHR finishes at or above $50 @ February expiration.

Breakeven: If UTHR finishes at $46.27 ($47.82 � $1.55) @ February expiration.

Maximum loss: $4,627, which occurs in the unlikely event that UTHR goes to $0 @ February expiration.

Managing the UTHR Covered Call Trade

The main objective for a covered call strategy is for the stock to just rise up to the sold call�s strike price at expiration, which in this case is $50. The stock moves up the maximum amount without being called away, gains are enjoyed on the shares and the sold call expires worthless.

In the unlikely event the stock blows past the resistance that is just below $52 and looks like it�s going to go much higher, then the call that was previously sold (UTHR Feb 50 Call) can be bought back and a higher strike can be sold against the position to avoid assignment. This will allow the stock to remain in the portfolio and also give the position a chance to increase its return.

If the stock drops in price more than was anticipated, it might make sense to close out the entire trade (stock and short call) to avoid further losses.

Need a new year�s resolution for your investing that will pay off in spades? Here�s one to get you started off on the right foot: Do not trade without a designated trading plan this year!

Opinion: Counterfeit Kenyan279 comments

How's this for deus ex machina? Breitbart.com "has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as 'born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii.' "

Of course Obama wasn't born in Kenya. We've all seen the birth certificates that verify he was born in Hawaii. The president was pressured into releasing them by conspiracy nuts who theorized that he was actually born overseas and therefore ineligible to the presidency, which requires one to be a "natural-born citizen." (Birth in the U.S. is almost always a sufficient condition to make one a natural-born citizen. But as we explained in 2009, under the immigration statutes in effect at Obama's birth, in his case it was a necessary condition as well, because his mother was 18, his father was an alien, and his parents were married.)

Now it turns out that a literary agency acting on Obama's behalf claimed more than 20 years ago that he was born in Kenya. Obama's case ends up looking very much like that of Elizabeth Warren, who early in her career dubiously claimed to be "Native American."

Here's the full text of the Obama blurb: "Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago's South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White."

If only the working title had been "Bow Wow Chow," it would be perfect.

The blurb contains at least one other error. Barack Obama Sr. was never Kenya's finance minister. According to "Dreams From My Father," the elder Obama "got a job with the Ministry of Finance" sometime during his son's last two years in high school, which would have been in the late 1970s. Other accounts describe him as having been a "senior economist" at the ministry. The elder Obama died in a 1982 car accident.

PoliticalWire.com quotes Miriam Goderich, a partner in what is now known as Dystel & Goderich Literary Management, who explains the error as follows: "This was nothing more than a fact checking error by me--an agency assistant at the time. There was never any information given to us by Obama in any of his correspondence or other communications suggesting in any way that he was born in Kenya and not Hawaii. I hope you can communicate to your readers that this was a simple mistake and nothing more."

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A page from Obama's history.

Goderich doesn't specify if she failed to catch the error or if she introduced the error by "correcting" the statement that he was born in Hawaii. Either way, the statement that it was a "fact-checking error" begs the question: What was the source of the false information about his birthplace? (A 1990 New York Times story about Obama's election to the law review could have been the source of the error about his father's position, but it correctly identified his birthplace as Hawaii.)

One innocent possibility is that the young Obama himself was for a time under the misapprehension that he was born in Kenya--a parallel to Warren's assertion that she simply believed the "family lore" about her Indian heritage. Although one is physically present for one's own birth, one is not in any meaningful sense a witness to it. Obama, like the rest of us, knows he was born in Hawaii only because others have told him so and official documents say so.

In any case, Obama's putative foreign birth fit in with the image his agents were trying to sell: that of a young man whose exotic background gave him a pertinent perspective on "social and racial issues." Obama, like Warren, was a product of elite academia, which places a great premium on such "diversity." When tales of exotic origins become a kind of currency, it shouldn't surprise us to find that prominent people, when they were young and ambitious, turn out to have passed counterfeits.

The Wright Stuff Yesterday the New York Times reported that "a group of high-profile Republican strategists" was "working with a conservative billionaire," Joe Ricketts, "on a proposal to mount one of the most provocative campaigns of the 'super PAC' era":

The plan, which is awaiting approval, calls for running commercials linking Mr. Obama to incendiary comments by his former spiritual adviser, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., whose race-related sermons made him a highly charged figure in the 2008 campaign.

The "plan," according to the Times, was only "one of several being studied by Mr. Ricketts." A copy "was obtained by The New York Times through a person not connected to the proposal who was alarmed by its tone."

Yesterday afternoon, the Times reported on its website, Brian Baker, head of the super PAC, released a statement disavowing the idea: "Not only was this plan merely a proposal--one of several submitted to the Ending Spending Action Fund by third-party vendors--but it reflects an approach to politics that Mr. Ricketts rejects and it was never a plan to be accepted but only a suggestion for a direction to take." The reporters counter that "in an interview on Wednesday evening, Mr. Baker did not reject the contents of the advertising proposal."

Meanwhile, Romney also rejected the idea. Politico quotes the presumptive GOP nominee: "I want to make it very clear, I repudiate that effort. I think it's the wrong course for a PAC or a campaign. I hope that our campaigns can respectively be about the futures and about issues and about a vision for America." But Romney also "muddied his own message," Politico writes, "when asked about a February appearance on Sean Hannity's radio show in which he brought up Wright":

"I'm actually--I'm not familiar with precisely, exactly what I said. But I stand by what I said, whatever it was. And with regards to--I'll go back and take a look at what was said there," he said.

"I stand by what I said, whatever it was" sounds like a foolish statement, though one could argue that it treats the subject with an exactly appropriate degree of seriousness.

The Obama campaign sent out an email titled "You've seriously got to read this," using the abortive proposal as a fund-raising pitch of its own: "[It] shows in vivid and gruesome detail what the President and all of us are up against. . . . This is going to be worse than we could have imagined. President Obama needs your help to stop it before it starts."

For those who've forgotten, Jeremiah Wright, whom Barack Obama used to call his "spiritual mentor," is a practitioner of "liberation theology," which turns out to mean hateful anti-American leftism. His best-known pronouncements are "God damn America!" and "America's chickens are coming home to roost," the latter a reference to the 9/11 attacks, just days after they occurred. Even the New York Times editorial page acknowledges that Wright's views are "clearly racist."

Thanks to the New York Times, Wright has been all over the news for the past couple of days. And it didn't cost Joe Ricketts a dime.

Journalism and Junk Science This embarrassing correction was appended Wednesday to a Sunday New York Times op-ed by William Deresiewicz, "an essayist, critic and the author of "A Jane Austen Education":

An earlier version of this article misstated the findings of a 2010 study on psychopathy in corporations. The study found that 4 percent of a sample of 203 corporate professionals met a clinical threshold for being described as psychopaths, not that 10 percent of people who work on Wall Street are clinical psychopaths. In addition, the study, in the journal Behavioral Sciences and the Law, was not based on a representative sample; the authors of the study say that the 4 percent figure cannot be generalized to the larger population of corporate managers and executives.

At the Daily Beast, Edward Jay Epstein has more:

As Ryan Holiday, author of Trust Me, I'm Lying: Confessions of a Media Manipulator, explained to me, "Headline-grabbing trend manufacturing such as this now dominates the pseudo-news cycle on the Web." Welcome to the Internet, which is not known for its source-checking.Unfortunately, it is then only a short leap to the so-called newspaper of record, which was happy to serve up to the public this non-existing study, which like much else demonizes financiers, as a scientific finding. As a result, we now have mad men of Wall Street running amok in the public imagination.

It seems to us it's quite unreasonable to blame the Times's error on "the Web." The Weekly Standard's Andrew Ferguson documents how several recent books purporting to prove scientifically that liberals are better than conservatives are based on pure hokum. He begins by noting that there was a spate of similar books just after World War II. Journalists have been regurgitating junk science since long before the Internet was commercialized.

Metaphor Alert "The False Equivalency Police are dancing on Americans Elect's grave."--Matt Miller, Washington Post, May 18

Out on a Limb

• "Meat And Masculinity: Men May Avoid Vegetarian Options Over Manly Perception of Meat"--headline, Puffington Host, May 17
• " 'U.S. Department of Peace' May Never Get Its Chance"--headline, Washington Post, May 18

We Blame George W. Bush "Who Is to Blame for Greece's Crisis?"--headline, Guardian website (London), May 18

We Blame Global Warming "For Dems, Bush Is to Blame--Forever and Ever"--headline, Washington Examiner, May 18

Uh-Oh, She's on the Warpath "Elizabeth Warren Goes After Wall Street in Wake of Native American Flap"--headline, ABCNews.com, May 17

Elizabeth Warren Was Going to Attend, but She Thought It Was on May 32nd "Annual Powwow Returns to Pocomoke"--headline, Daily Times (Salisbury, Md.), May 18

Not Smack, Though "Anti-Obama Ad Flap Deals Blow to Wrigley Field Rehab Plan"--headline, Chicago Tribune, May 18

Longest Books Ever Written "Obama's Biggest Mistake in the World"--headline, BuzzFeed.com, May 18

I Don't Want Your War Machines / I Don't Need Your Ghetto Scenes "America's Women Can't Be Trusted"--headline, Slate.com, May 17

This Is What Happens When Women Marry Down "Superior Woman's 'Ex-Husband Sale' Stops Traffic"--headline, Duluth (Minn.) Tribune, May 17

To Serve Man "California Chefs in a Stew Over Foie Gras Ban"--headline, TurkishPress.com, May 18

How It Got a Frying Pan He'll Never Know "Man Fights Off Mountain Lion With Frying Pan"--headline, PetersensHunting.com, May 16

The Lonely Lives of Scientists "Deep in the Ocean Floor Scientists Find Life Buried for Millions of Years"--headline, Houston Chronicle website, May 18

Whatever You Do, Don't Look Up "Exclusive: Male Student Suspended for Wearing a Skirt"--headline, WRC-TV website (Washington), May 18

Hey, Kids! What Time Is It?

• "Time for Nation to Declare War on Being Stupid"--headline, Ironton (Ohio) Tribune, May 18
• "Food Revolution Day"--headline, Puffington Host, May 17

Questions Nobody Is Asking

• "Does Your Cat Have a Drug Problem?"--headline, BuzzFeed.com, May 17
• "Can John Edwards Come Back?"--headline, ABCNews.com, May 17
• "Could McCain Have the Winning Strategy to Win Over Latino Voters?"--headline, FoxNews.com, May 17

Answers to Questions Nobody Is Asking "How to Have Your Big Gay Moment"--headline, Puffington Host, May 17

Look Out Below! "Obama Has Lost His Grip on the Youth Vote"--headline, Daily Telegraph website (London), May 18

It's Always in the Last Place You Look

• "Blacks Lose Majority in the District"--headline, Washington Examiner website, May 18
• "Census Shows Whites Lose US Majority Among Babies"--headline, Associated Press, May 17

News of the Tautological "UK Surveillance Program Could Expose Private Lives"--headline, Associated Press, May 18

News of the Oxymoronic " 'Rare' Genetic Variants Surprisingly Common"--headline, BioscienceTechnology.com, May 18

Bottom Stories of the Day

• "Al Gore Has a Girlfriend: California Donor and Activist Elizabeth Keadle"--headline, Washington Post website, May 17
• " 'Princelings' in China Use Family Ties to Gain Riches"--headline, New York Times, May 18

Huh Huh Huh, He Said 'Ayrault' "France's new Socialist government . . . has created a completely different problem in the Middle East," CNN reports from Abu Dhabi:

The prime minister's last name, it turns out, sounds like an Arabic slang word for penis.His name is Jean-Marc Ayrault. . . .The name has left broadcasters trying to determine if they should pronounce it as the prime minister does--"ai-roh"--or if they should resort to voicing the "L" and "T" in the written word.An editor at the pan-Arabic network Al-Arabiya said the network would pronounce the name in the French way."We cannot change names, so we have to deal with it and live with it. We have to be professional," said the editor, who asked not to be named because of the subject matter.

It's easy for us in the West to forget how much more advanced our culture is than the rest of the world's. After all, Americans have been inured to this sort of thing since the 1990s and "Beavis and Butt-head."

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(Carol Muller helps compile Best of the Web Today. Thanks to Judah Spetner, Mark King, Randall Woodman, T. Young, Michele Schiesser, Lynn Bateman, Steve Thompson, Timothy Knowlton, Dan Goldstein, David Hallstrom, John Sanders, Ed Grinberg, Eric Jensen, Kyle Kyllan, John Bobek, Bob Acker, Jeryl Bier, Richard Wong, Bob Wukitsch, Merv Benson, Johnny Ray, Zack Russ, Rod Pennington, Bart Borkosky, Dan Draney, Joe Dougherty, Imo Umoren and Monty Kireger. If you have a tip, write us at opinionjournal@wsj.com, and please include the URL.)

1 Dow Stock to Love Today

The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series, in which consumer goods editor/analyst Austin Smith and technology editor/analyst Andrew Tonner discuss topics across the investing world.

In today's edition, Austin and Andrew discuss one of the most iconic Dow companies out there: Coca-Cola. This is the company that habitually tops brand-ranking lists as having "the world's most valuable brand," a truly incredible asset. Coupled with its second-to-none distribution network, it's easy to make a long-term bull case for Coca-Cola.

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The 10 Dumbest Analyst Calls of 2008

This collection of calls has been easier to write than "See Spot Run." My only difficulty has been restraining myself in order to not be sued, punched out or have my tires slashed. That being said, I will be paraphrasing some of the geniuses I quote below. And I’ve included a bonus — quotes from some of the analysts who have been dead-on correct.

Next: "We have hit a bottom…"

    

 

1.	"We have hit bottom. "
	Any Week between Jan. 2 and mid-September

Approximately 14,117 analysts all of whom have been interviewed on CNBC, Fox Business or the fifth-grade weekly television show at the Herbert Hoover Elementary School.

Learn more about Micheal Shulman’s take on the the financial crisis

Next: "Housing will bottom when…"

-     

 

2.	"Housing will bottom when new housing starts fall below 1 million units per year."
	Any Week between Jan. 2 and mid-September

Virtually every analyst following the homebuilders for the first nine months of the year. November housing starts dropped to 625,000 — down 18.2% year-over-year and 6.4% from October — and new permits fell even harder. Total housing inventory is twice what it was two years ago.

Next: "GM has bottomed…"

    

 

3.	"GM has bottomed … GM is a buy here."
	Feb. 18, 2008

 Jim Cramer, video-based analyst, or so he says.

Next: "Investors can now buy bank stocks…"

    

 

4.	"Investors can now buy bank stocks at their cheapest levels in almost two decades … the last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990 …. the next time will be in 20 years. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity."
	March 10, 2008

Dick Bove, a formerly brilliant analyst at Punk Ziegel. He is now on what one hedge fund manager I spoke to calls "full TILT." The banking ETF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), is down 54% since this prediction.

Next: "Bear Stearns is a buy…"

    

 

5.	"Bear Stearns is a buy at these levels, and we are buying."
	Friday, March 14, 2008

Bill Miller of the Legg Mason Value Fund (LMVFX), not an analyst but a money manager, clearly does little or no analysis. He bought when Bear Stearns hit around $30. On Monday, March 17 — St. Patrick’s Day — the company was acquired for $2 a share.

Next: "Successful efforts by authorities…"

    

 

6.	"Successful efforts by authorities to restore liquidity and the orderly functioning of financial markets, along with the massive amount of policy stimulus that has already­­ been applied … are expected to lead to a modest recovery in the U.S. economy in the second half of the year."
	March 20, 2008

Larry Kantor, resident genius and head of research at Barclays Capital.

Next: "Chinese growth will be…"

    

 

7.	"Chinese growth will be 9.4% in 2008."
	April 1, 2008

The World Bank. Who cares, there are still a billion and a half of them, right? Gotta buy something, right? "Oops, Chinese growth in 2008 will end up at 7.5%." Same guys at the World Bank working 20 hours a week in between first-class flights home.

Next: "Power is the place to be…"

    

 

8.	"Power is the place to be — I like Foster Wheeler right here."
	April 7, 2008

 Jim, "you’re the (wrong) man" Cramer, the Merlin of people looking for tax losses, when Foster Wheeler (FWLT) was at $62. It is down 60% from this insightful analysis.

Next: "We are buying more of Freddie Mac…"

    

 

9.	"We are buying more of Freddie Mac, we bought another 30 million shares."
	September 2008

Bill Miller, Legg Mason Value Fund … no analysis again. One week later you and I — through our servant Hank Paulson — took over Freddie (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM).

Next: "Our forecast is $149 a barrel for U.S. crude oil…"

    

 

10.	"Our forecast is $149 a barrel for U.S. crude oil … .strong fundamentals were a more important factor than a strengthening dollar."
	Aug. 20, 2008

Goldman Sachs (GS). Well, they only missed it by a $100 a barrel — matches the rest of their performance this year. "Oops, sorry, oil will be $70 a barrel by year-end. And it could hit $50," said the same group of geniuses two and half months later.

Next: "Tangible equity means nothing…"

    

 

11.	"Tangible equity means nothing in valuing bank stocks."
	December 2008

Dick Bove again, in response (I think) to a blog showing  (and proving) a huge amount of core tangible equity at Citigroup (C) is deferred tax assets — profits to be realized in the future. This quote is the equivalent of saying the quality and amount of cheese and dough have nothing to do with the quality of a pizza.

Next: Some People Who Got It Right

    

 Some people got it right…

"The big banks are going to be on life support for at least 18 months or 36 months. They won’t fail, but they won’t grow either for another two years."

First and foremost, then, now and in the future, Ms. Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer. This brilliant (and brave) analyst issued a sell on Citigroup and said they would cut their dividend in late October of 2007. She received death threats for that call, and I met her a few days later when we appeared together on Fox Business the day the bank stocks broke.  Citi was around $40 when she made her call — it’s now at $8 and headed to pocket change.

Today Whitney sees another downturn in bank stocks because they have little earnings power going forward and weak balance sheets. She also sees another 20% drop in home prices — don’t bet against her.

Next: "I think the charts have been forewarning…"

    

 

“I think the charts have been forewarning us that the markets are deteriorating…The 2002 lows are very vulnerable and chances are good they are going to be broken.”

And how about Louise Yamada, founder and the boss of Technical Research Advisors? She is generally regarded as one of the best — and perhaps the best — technician on the planet and has called most everything that has gone on in the market. Her current thoughts? An S&P eventually trading between 400 and 600 as, she says, the market is making "lower highs and lower lows." The basis of this forecast? The "bricks" — the companies — that make up the S&P 500 do not have the earnings power in 2009 and beyond to support valuations at their current level.

Next: "In terms of nominal GDP, I see it being around 1% for a long time…"

    

 

“In terms of nominal GDP, I see it being around 1% for a long time, five years for sure … if it took the corporate sector five years to recover from the bursting of the dot-com bubble, to suggest that it would take five years for consumers to recover from this seems like a very conservative call.”

Last but not least is Stephanie Pomboy, who was conveniently interviewed for the first time in more than three years in Barron’s this week. She is a macro analyst who founded and runs MacroMavens.

Pomboy has called the structural problems in housing, consumer credit, the dollar and so on going back to 2002. She sees the deleveraging of the consumer and the economy as perhaps a decade-long affair and the government having a continuing and outsized role in financial markets and the economy in general. Stephanie is more bearish than I am — perhaps 10% plus unemployment, 1% GDP growth (on average) for quite a while — and a shift from paper to hard assets.

Next: A New Analyst Model

 

A New Analyst Model

When I review these three analysts’ work, I see a need to combine their efforts in a new model — testosterone-free analysis. No hype, no hope, just agnosticism in the face of too much opinion.  And since the most laid back and incredibly accurate male analyst I know is Bill Gross of PIMCO, who speaks in a totally testosterone-free manner, I would put him in your reading mix.  A credit market and macro level analyst who has nailed it all year long. And made a lot of money doing it.

All four of these folks see secular changes in world credit markets and the U.S. economy, and I agree. I also agree with them that we will see more in 2009 of what we have seen in 2008: Wall Street surprised by a continuing mess in housing, a continuing mess in bank balance sheets and earnings, and a continuing shrinkage of credit due to the de-leveraging of all financial institutions and consumers.

So stay testosterone free — metaphorically speaking, of course, for many of you — and be careful who you listen to in 2009.

Learn more about Micheal Shulman’s take on the the financial crisis

Here are more 2008 Wrap-ups and 2009 Trading Ideas