Shorts Keen To Play AMD On After-Hours Decline Or Gain

AMD (AMD) is expected to report Q2 results tonight after the close. The analyst mean estimate on Capital IQ is for profit of $0.07 per share on $1.41 billion in revenue.

AMD is an issue that shorts watch closely off quarterly results. The stock has recorded an earnings-driven upside move in the after-hours in 17 of the last 32 quarters we've tracked. In 13 of those quarters, it has seen its after-hours gain reverse or narrow the following regular session, or 76% of the time. In the 15 quarters where AMD has recorded an evening decline, it added to that downside move during the following day's trading session 10 times, or 67% of the time.

Over the long term, AMD favors a narrowing pattern, either cutting back or reversing its evening trade 19 times in the last 32 quarters, and seeing flat trade between the sessions in another instance.

• On April 19, 2012, AMD advanced 1.8% in night trade after topping Q1 estimates. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the April 20 regular session down 2.6%.
• On Jan. 24, 2012, AMD declined 1.5% in after-hours trade after just missing on Q4 revenue and beating on earnings. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Jan. 25 regular session up 3%.
• On Oct. 27, 2011, AMD firmed 4.8% in evening trade after beating Q3 estimates. The stock leaped higher the next day, closing the Oct. 28 regular session up 7.2%.
• On July 21, 2011, AMD advanced 6.1% in after-hours action after topping Q2 earnings estimates. The stock soared in the July 22 regular session, ending up 19.2%.
• On April 21, 2011, AMD slipped 0.4% in night trade after beating earnings estimates but also guiding for flat to a sequential decline in revenue. The stock saw its downside narrow the next day, ending the April 22 regular session off 0.1%.
• On Jan. 20, 2011, the stock slipped 0.1% after a Q4 beat but guidance for steady to lower revenue for Q1. Shares dropped a steeper 6% during the following regular trading session.
• On Oct. 14, 2010, AMD gained 4.2% in after-hours trade after reporting Q3 results that were up over year ago levels. The stock saw its advance evaporate the next day, closing the Oct. 15 regular session down 0.2%.
• On July 15, 2010, AMD advanced 2.5% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected Q2 results. The stock saw its gain evaporate the next day, closing the July 16 regular session down 0.5%.
• On April 15, 2010, the stock fell 5% in after-hours trading despite a swing to a profit that beat the Street view. Shares fell a milder 3.4% during the following day's regular session.
• On January 21, 2010, the stock fell 3.3% in after-hours trading after a Q4 miss. Shares fell a deeper 12.3% the next day.
• On Oct. 15, 2009, AMD shed 4.2% in after-hours trade despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 results. The stock added to its downside the following day, ending down 7.2% in the Oct. 16 regular session.
• On July 21, 2009, AMD plummeted 11.8% in after-hours trade after reporting a year-over-year decline in revenue and a narrower loss. It moved deeper in the red the following day, ending the July 22 regular session down 12.9%.
• On April 21, 2009, AMD fell 5% in extended-hours trading despite reporting a slightly slimmer loss than the Street expected and beating with revenue. The stock fell a reduced 0.9% the next day.
• On Jan. 22, 2009, AMD declined 3.9% in after-hours trade after missing Street expectations. The stock recorded a sharp reversal the next day, ending the Jan. 23 regular session up 2.5%.
• On Oct. 16, 2008, the stock jumped 10.9% in the evening session after AMD beat with Q3 results but guides for Q4 results just below the Street view. The gain was pared to 2.1% the following day.
• On July 17, 2008, AMD declined 7.1% in after-hours action after missing Q2 expectations. The stock turned deeper south the next day, losing 12.2% by the close on July 18.
• On April 17, 2008, the stock managed a slim 0.3% advance in night trade after the company meets with Q1 results. Shares fell 2.3% the next day.
• On Jan. 17, 2008, the stock gained 4.3% during evening trading after AMD reported a sales miss. The gain swelled to 11.5% the next day.
• On Oct. 18, 2007, AMD clawed 0.3% higher in after-hours trade after beating Q3 expectations. It couldn't hold on to this slight gain and closed the Oct. 19 regular session with a deep 5.1% decline.
• On July 19, 2007, AMD jumped 4.5% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 revenue expectations. It lost that gain the following day, ending the July 20 regular session down 1.7%.
• On April 19, 2007, the stock was up 0.8% after revenues decline vs a year ago and the company guides for revs in line to up slightly. Shares ended down 1.4% the next day.
• On January 23, 2007, AMD dropped 4.3% in night trade after beating Q4 sales estimates but guiding Q1 below Street views. Shares tumbled further the next day, ending the regular session down 8.4%.
• On Oct. 18, 2006, AMD slid 9.2% in after-hours trade despite topping Q3 sales estimates. The shares tumbled further the next day, closing the regular session down 13.2%.
• On July 20, 2006, AMD reported revenue shy of expectations, and the stock declined 3.8% in after-hours action. Sellers hammered the issue in the July 21 regular session, crushing it 15.6% by the closing bell.
• On April 12, 2006, shares fell 2% in evening trading after the company reported in line and guided for Q2 flat to slightly lower. The loss swelled to 10.2% the next day.
• On Jan. 18, 2006, AMD advanced to the 37.80 level (no percentage data available as an exchange trade reporting error that day made the after-hours percentage data inaccurate). The evening gain followed better-than-expected Q4 results and flat to slightly down sales guidance. The stock maintained its upside on Jan. 19, but buyers scaled back the gains, and AMD closed that day's regular session at 37.13 (up 8.7%).
• On Oct. 11, 2005, AMD climbed 1.3% in after-hours trade after the company beat Q3 expectations. This upside momentum failed to hold through the Oct. 12 regular session and sellers punished the issue between the bells, driving it down 12.5% by the close.
• On July 13, 2005 AMD advanced 3.2% in night trade after the company reported sales flat with year ago levels and a decline in earnings. It failed to move much in either direction off this evening level and ended the July 14 regular session up the same 3.2%.
• Back on April 13, 2005 AMD advanced 1.5% in night trade after the company reported a decline in sales vs. a year ago and posted a loss. The stock saw its after-hours gains evaporate in next-day trade and ended the April 14 session down 4.7%.
• On Jan. 18, 2005 AMD slid 1.8% in after-hours trade after the company posted a loss, reported revenue just ahead of estimates, and forecast flat to lower sales. The stock fought its way out of the red on Jan. 19, ultimately ending the regular session at the flat line.
• On October 7, 2004 AMD reported in line results and the stock eked out a thin 0.2% rise. Sellers hit the issue hard the next day, pressuring it 4.3% lower by the October 8 bell-to-bell close.
• AMD slipped 0.6% the night of July 14, 2004, after company beat revenue expectations and reported EPS in line with estimates. The stock fell victim to heavier downside momentum on July 15, losing 5.6% by the close of trade.
• Finally, back on April 14 of 2004 AMD topped Street expectations and the stock jumped 2.5% in after-hours trade. Buyers saw those gains disappear the next day as AMD dropped 5.2% by the closing bell on April 15.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.