Sunday, July 22, 2012

Monday Morning Outlook: Short-Term Pain Could Give Way to Long-Term Gains

As we head deeper into the disreputable month of May, the short-term outlook has become increasingly cloudy. All-too-familiar anxieties about the Greek financial crisis rattled markets last week, and small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be retreating from their critical leadership role. Senior Technical Strategist Ryan Detrick doesn't think bulls should throw in the towel just yet, but he's definitely seeing more bearish opportunities. In fact, seasonal trends point to a trying time for the market in the weeks ahead. Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White offers an equally sobering short-term analysis, even as he explains why 2011 is already on pace to be a banner year for the S&P 500 Index. Finally, we wrap up with a look at the expiration week ahead, as well as a few sectors of note.

Opportunities Emerge for Both Bulls and Bears
By Ryan Detrick , Senior Technical Strategist

Todd Salamone is out this week, down at the Options Industry Conference in Savannah, so I'll be filling in.

As we've been noting for several weeks now, one key to the overall trend could be the performance of the small- and mid-cap names. With the Russell 2000 Index sitting just below resistance at 850, and the S&P MidCap 400 Index trading south of resistance at 1,000, a clear breakout above these levels is probably needed to drive another thrust higher for the overall market. By the end of last week, though, both indexes once again backed down from these psychologically significant technical levels.

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