Earlier, the Justice Department said it would sue AMR Corp. (AAMRQ) and U.S. Airways (LCC) to block their merger, citing competitive concerns. AMR has dropped 48% to $2.99 on the news, while U.S. Airways has fallen 10% to $13.38.
Associated Press The losses for AMR are enormous and its not too difficult to see why. The company is emerging from bankruptcy and this deal was a big part of the plan. Cowen’s Helane Becker and Conor Cunningham consider the implications:
AMR Corp’s POR focused on merging with US Airways. With the DoJ blocking the merger, AMR will need to go back to the drawing board. In our opinion, if the US Airways/AMR deal were to be permanently blocked, AMR would need to address its issues on the standalone basis, likely through capacity and headcount reductions. AMR needs to address its operations in LA and the overall network, which would result in capacity reductions and higher ticket fares. Worst case scenario, AMR would need to liquidate, resulting in significant capacity and headcount reduction. In any scenario, we believe the capacity reductions would benefit the entire industry and result in improved supply/demand environment and PRASM trends.
Becker and Cunningham, however, believe that the selloff in other airlines on the news is “overdone.” They recommend focusing on Delta Air Lines (DAL), which has dropped 9.2% to $19.09, and United Airlines (UAL), which has fallen 6.5% to $31.06.
UPDATE:
S&P Capital IQ analyst Jim Corridore says he’s surprised by the suit. He writes:
We are surprised by the suit, as regulators allowed several other airline combinations over the past few years. We think the planned merger would provide major benefits to LCC, as it would greatly improve what we see as an inferior foreign route network, but we also think LCC is a low-cost carrier with a favorable valuation. Our target price stays $26.
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