Monday, November 26, 2012

Crowded Trades = Rising Risk Levels

Reuters reports that the latest Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC shows a crowded short in the US dollar:

The value of the dollar's net short position rose to $34.9 billion in the week ended March 1 from $22.36 billion a week earlier, according to CFTC and Reuters calculations. It was the largest net short dollar position for which Reuters has data, dating back to June 2008.

The other side of the coin of the short USD trade has been the skyrocketing commodity price. Maryann Bartels of BoA-Merrill Lynch aggregated the COT positions for large speculators in the CRB Index and found that large speculators (read: hedge funds) are in a crowded long position in commodities.

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