Saturday, November 24, 2012

Shayne Heffernan: Looking at Thailand for 2010 and Beyond

Background

The Kingdom of Thailand was established in the mid-14th century. Known as Siam until as recently as 1939, Thailand is the only Southeast Asian country never to have been taken over by a European power.The country remains firmly independent of external influences. A bloodless revolution in 1932 led to the formation of the current constitutional monarchy.

In September 2006, a Military Coup ousted then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The interim military government then held elections in December 2007 that saw the former pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) emerge at the head of a coalition government. The anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in May 2008 began street demonstrations against the new government, eventually occupying the prime minister's office in August. Clashes in October 2008 between PAD protesters blocking parliament and police resulted in the death of at least two people. The PAD occupied Bangkok's international airports briefly, ending their protests in early December 2008 following a court ruling that dissolved the ruling PPP and two other coalition parties for election violations. The Democrat Party then formed a new coalition government and Abhisit Wetchachiwa became prime minister.

Thailand has a well-developed infrastructure, a free enterprise economy, and some generally pro-investment policies, Not surprisingly Thailand's economy was one of East Asia's best performers from 2002-04, averaging more than 6% annual real GDP growth. However, overall economic growth has fallen sharply in recent times - averaging 4.9% from 2005 to 2007 as persistent International reports of a political crisis eroded investor and consumer confidence, and damaged the country's image unfairly. The growth rate fell to 2.6% in 2008. Exports remained the key economic driver as foreign investment and consumer demand stalled. Export growth from January 2005 to November 2008 averaged 17.5% annually. what has been called the 2008 global financial crisis further darkened Thailand's economic horizon, we at Ebeling Heffernan identified this as the perfect opportunity for investment using the age old theory of buying low, selling high.

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