Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Quick Service Serving Up Profits

The quick service dining sector is looking tastier by the day. Yum Brands' (YUM) struggles with Taco Bell aside, revenue and profit growth is registering with consistency throughout the sector this quarter.

On Tuesday, Panera (PNRA) became the latest quick service restaurant to report healthy revenue and comparable sales gains this earnings season. In Panera's case, the company's margins also got a solid boost from price increases that were not enough to deter customers from the company's fresh baked menu offerings.

Looking at a few key metrics compared with rivals, we can put Panera's figures in some context.

Metric Panera Chipotle McDonald's
EPS Growth (TTM vs. prior TTM) +31% +24% +13%
Operating Margin (TTM) 12% 16% 30%
Price/Sales (TTM) 2.12 4.96 3.62
Comps (most recent quarter) +6% +11% +5%

Chipotle (CMG) - Pure Growth

Chipotle just clocked scorching comparable sales figures, lending some support to its lofty valuation and giving fuel to the stock's 57% return, year-to-date. Chipotle, for good reason, has the most ambitious growth plans of this group, aiming to open a record 160 new stores in 2012 after opening about 140 this year.

Panera Bread Company - Shareholder Return

Panera's focus on delivering at least 20% EPS growth, quarter after quarter, while participating in strong stock buy-backs demonstrates the company's desire to maximize return to shareholders. Panera expects to open about 110 new bakery cafes in 2012, on par with 2011's growth figures. The stock is up 15%, year-to-date.

McDonald's (MCD) - Profit Powerhouse

The golden arches continued to live up to their name this quarter, as MCD booked a 40 basis point uptick in operating margins which reached a mouth-watering 31.8% in the most recent quarter. The company plans steady growth, increasing store count by about 3%. While EPS growth is the lowest of the group, the dividend yield on shares of this fast food blue chip remains over 3%, offering investors plenty to digest while they wait for profits to accumulate. McDonald's shares have risen 20%, year-to-date.

Disclosure: I am long MCD.

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